~ Article Currently Under Construction ~
As our Yucalandia staff continue reading scientific articles & reports from around the internet, including emails from friends and family, we come across some interesting proposals that offer some hopeful things that offer solutions to the growing problems our world faces.
Continuing temperatture increases since 1850 have been accelerating this past 30 years across the world to give us starkly troubling changes in weather, as storms have become far more intense & damaging, and as average coastal water levels continue to slowly rise, as non-storm flooding has become a regular event in places like Miami:
In light of this, we offer some information from a pair of reports that propose what we think are interesting solutions, plus on abstract for a 3’rd paper from C limate R estoration T echnologies describing some very proming solutions:
Because some of the concepts are fairly new, we should offer a Glossary of Terms that these scientists use in their reports:
Albedo The extent of earth-reflectance in scattering a fraction of incident sunlight back into outer space
ANFN Amplified nitrogen-fixing & nitrification by trichodesmium, archaea, & nitrite-oxidizing bacteria1 in bioreactors
Archaea An ocean organism that oxidizes trichodesmium-produced ammonia (NH3) to nitrite (NO2-)1 in bioreactors
BCS Biochar sequestration (of carbon that would otherwise release (as CO2) from decomposing inland crop detritus)
CCS Carbon capture & storage (a.k.a. carbon capture & sequestration) from concentrated emission sources
CDR Carbon dioxide removal from atmospheric accumulation and outgassing reservoirs
CDR-C CDR-composite (diatom OACC-MES, BCS, DAC, MP-CDR, EHUX + trichodesmium CDR, and other ocean aqua-culture)
DAB Diatom-attaching bacteria (induces mature diatom TEP exudation and diatom aggregation (1 – 4 mm clumping))2-6
DAC Inland direct air capture (e.g., with captured CO2 mineralizing in subterranean fractured rock (olivine or peridotite))
Diatoms A type of fast-blooming marine planktonic algae. The best algae for high-impact CO2 capture and export
Dinoflagellates Heterotrophic protist grazers that devour fertile-ocean diatom blooms before they aggregate (via DAB and TEP)
DMS Dimethyl-sulfide. The primary oceanic cloud-seeding agent . . . released by dying EHUX10
DOC Non-exporting Dissolved Organic Carbon leaked by diatoms—from slow growth, nutrient-lack stress, & grazing7
DSW Deep sea water (to be pumped from below thermocline and photic zones, e.g. from 1 Km depth)8
Earth2040 CRT’s five-part climate & ocean restoration: EC-34/EC-90 + CDR-C + Multi-tiered SRM10 + SPSC11 + OH- infusion
EC-34 & EC-90 Emissions cutting targets of 34% and 90% cuts (from 10 GtC/yr to 6.6 GtC/yr by 2050—and to 1 GtC/yr by 2075)
EHUX Emiliania huxleyi—white ocean algae that release ~15% of CO2 via open-sea calcification, while sequestering ~ 85%
Flocculants Silica gel or a lithogenic mix of clay minerals, allophane, calcite, barite, and/or volcanogenic (tephra) particles (VTP)
Fossil H2 “Gray” Hydrogen reformed from natural gas, with steam cracking off the carbon at 2 different temperatures
GtC or GtCO2 1 GtC = 1 Petagram C = 1 billion tonnes (metric tons) carbon = 3.65 billion tonnes CO2 = 3.65 GtCO2
HLFO High latitude fertile oceans (> 40°N or > 40°S latitudes)
IEA International Energy Association
i-TSA Intensified Temperature-Swing Adsorption (a post-combustion CCS approach offered by Svante, Inc.)14
LAU Local artificial upwelling of nutrient-rich DSW from 1,000 meter (1 Km) depth in MLLO3 waters8
LCO2 Liquid carbon dioxide (CO2) byproduct captured from CCS fossil energy or CCS NH4NO3 production
Limiters Viruses, grazers & decomposition bacteria that limit diatom blooming and export of captured CO2 to seafloor15,16
LLP Limiter Loss Pathways, by which grazers & decomposition bacteria sabotage export of diatom-captured CO215,16
LNG Liquid natural gas
Micronuclear energy Factory-preassembled, portable nuclear (small modular) reactors (≤ 20 Mw) 17,52,53. . . for possible OACC-MES use
MLLO3 Mid-to-Low-Latitude Oligotrophic Open Oceans (Fig. 1 “ocean deserts” which lack surface phyto-nutrients)
MOF Metal Organic Framework, a type of CCS CO2 scrubbing adsorbent developed at U.C. Berkeley in 201544
MP-CDR Mesopelagic CO2 removal, e.g. krill that eat coastal or HLFO surface micro-algae, but dive deep to poop (and hide)
NDC Nation-determined contribution (to emissions cutting). A nation’s pledge to cut future emissions by an NDC amount
NH4NO3 Ammonium nitrate fertilizer to be industrially made . . . with CCS capture of the CO2 byproduct
Nitrification Two-step oxidizing archaea and NOB conversion of ocean-dissolved NH3 to NO2-, and NO2- to NO3- (nitrate)1
NOB Oceanic nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (for converting NO2- to NO3- )1
NPFE Nutrient Pre-concentration by Film Evaporation9
Nursery Sealed ocean bioreactor ships or drone fleets for accelerated production of seed algae
NZE Net-Zero Emissions. A future condition in which annual fossil energy emissions are offset by natural sinks and CDR
OACC-MES Ocean Amplified Carbon Capture with Maximal Export to Seafloor (as fast-sinking diatom aggregates)
OASR Ocean Amplified Solar Reflection (for an early whole-earth cooling increment)10. An EHUX-based SRM
Oligotrophic Lacking phyto-nutrients; also devoid or sparse in limiters (viruses, grazers, bacteria, and non-exporting algae)
OTEC Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion. A coastal energy source that could hypothetically “piggy-back” on MLLO3 LAU
Redfield ratio Elemental ratio for algae. The modified Redfield ratio18 (for diatoms) of C:Si:N:P is typically 106:15:16:1
SMR Small Modular Reactor for compact portable remote micro-nuclear power production17,52-53 (possible use at sea)
SRM Solar Radiation Management for early whole-earth cooling and full restoration of ΔTGLOBAL = 0°C by 204010
SPSC Summer Polar Super-Cooling (to ∆T < 0°C; a regional value below the preindustrial summer polar temperature)11
∆T = 0°C The absence of global warming. (Restoration of the preindustrial (e.g., 1780 – 1850) temperature)10
T. weissflogii A nontoxic, fast-blooming ocean diatom species that exudes TEP when triggered by late-stage DAB inoculation2-6
TEP Transparent Exopolymer Particle. Sticky coating exuded by diatoms interacting with DAB diatom aggregates
Trichodesmium Nitrogen-fixing ocean cyanobacteria that capture CO2 and convert ocean-dissolved N2 to dissolved ammonia (NH3)1
UIC Unintended Consequences. Related to LAU cold-DSW (raised from 1 Km depth) or UV photolysis of N2O emissions
VTP Volcanogenic (tephra) particles. Volcanic ash
ZP Zooplankton grazers. (In this case, grazers that eat diatoms before they have a chance to aggregate and export.)
Introduction to these scientists ideas:
” Post-industrial revolution fossil energy emissions have accumulated (in part) as ~260 billion metric tons (carbon measure = 260 GtC) of excess atmospheric CO229, with [CO2] rising from 286 ppm in 1850 to 419 ppm (July 18, 2022)19. Summer 2021 was the hottest on record20. 2022 is poised to set additional records. However, 419 ppm won’t be the maximum. It’s a projected average [CO2] for 2022, which likely resumes rising at ~2.3 ppm/yr28.
CO2 emissions were 9.8 GtC in 2019, declining to 9.3 GtC in 202021. An International Energy Association (IEA) Special Report21 hailed 2020 – 21 declines as “successful cuts”, which IEA projects to continue until Net-Zero emissions (NZE) are achieved by 2050. This goal is shared by many world governments and the U.N., however NZE isn’t climate restoration. It won’t lower global temperature, restore ocean alkalinity, or stabilize polar ice. It will merely prevent ppm atmospheric CO2 and ocean acidification from getting worse. NZE is only a turning point . . . a prelude to higher-impact CO2 removal (CDR), which likely requires another 60 – 160 years beyond NZE.
The Biden administration targets 52% emissions cuts by 2030 and NZE by 2050, but 2021 – 2022 emissions are already rising sharply (6% in 2021 alone68), making the 2030 target unrealistic. If the concentration continues rising at 2.3 ppm/yr, atmospheric CO2 could reach 450 ppm by 2035. In that case, ocean pH could dip to 8.03, gravely threatening a variety of pH-sensitive marine life40.
India, Mexico, and China, plus other developing countries (aspiring to economic expansion plus middle class prosperity) may not willingly comply with IEA, IPCC, and COP-26 NDC targets21,22,29,48,49. China and India previously increased emissions, offsetting minor pre-pandemic reductions by western nations47. Global middle-class populations and gross domestic product (GDP) are expected to double by 204023,26, which portends higher emissions25. We recommend realistically retargeting global emissions cuts at 34% by 2050 and 90% by 2075.
At 450 ppm, climate suffering may seem unbearable. By 2035, higher-impact intervention may become imperative. We propose timely, high-impact, CCS fossil-fuel, CCS fertilizer, and ocean-algae-based engineering (plus biochar sequestration, direct air capture, mesopelagic CO2 removal, and realistic emissions cuts) to remove legacy CO2, new emissions, and future outgassing CO2. If no UICs manifest, that could restore 350 ppm by 2100 via 10 GtC/yr of CDR sprinting. Multi-tiered solar radiation management (SRM) could restore ∆T = 0°C by 204010.
Excess legacy atmospheric CO2 is 260 GtC29. With 34% emissions cuts by 2050 and 90% by 2075, 55% of new emissions remaining airborne and 45% sinking via soil carbon in-gassing and oceanic dissolution29, plus 170 years of legacy in-gassing (with those reservoirs likely outgassing again later), overall CO2-removal requirements may sum to ~650 GtC for 350 ppm restoration by 2100 via 10 GtC/yr of CDR sprinting from 2035 – 2100. Required removal for 280 ppm may be ≥ 1,000 GtC via 10 GtC/yr of CDR sprinting from 2035 – 2135. Final targets may occur between 350 and 300 ppm. “Slow-walk” options could amortize costs over longer time and reduce unintended consequence (UIC) risks. Final scaling requirements may occur between 650 – 1,100 GtC (requiring completion between 2100 – 2195 for 350 ppm, or 2135 – 2275 for 280 ppm, depending on post-2100 tropospheric aerosol pollution and the choice of OACC-MES CO2 drawdown “sprint” versus “slow walk” options).
In any case, targeted CO2 removal (CDR) rates should be 3.3 – 10 GtC/yr. Emissions cuts and CDR alone won’t defuse near-term warming crises or prevent polar ice collapse31-33. That requires at least -1.8°C of independent whole-earth cooling to ∆TGLOBAL = 0°C by 204010, plus summer polar super-cooling (SPSC with ∆TPOLAR < 0°C) 11.
Timely high-impact CCS fossil-fuel, fertilizer, and algae-based climate and ocean restoration
Liquid CO2 (LCO2) byproduct captured from CCS fossil energy14 & CCS-manufactured NH4NO3 could be shipped to diatom nursery seed-production bioreactors, with diluted LCO2 boiloff infusing their sealed headspaces with elevated CO2 levels. That (plus NH4NO3 and local artificial upwelling for Si, P, and Fe) could accelerate bioreactor seed production. Secondarily releasing nursery diatom seed and fertilizer into mid-to-low-latitude oligotrophic open oceans (MLLO3) could trigger massive open-sea blooming. This could capture 14x more atmospheric CO2 than the LCO2 byproduct . . . upstream-enabling 700 – 1400% negative carbon footprint for CCS fossil energy and CCS NH4NO3 fertilizer production. Each ¾ ton of CCS LCO2 could drive seed production for OACC-MES capture & export of 10 more tons atmospheric CO2 at sea. That could sum (from many sites) to 3.3 – 10 billion metric tons/yr (GtC/yr) of CO2 removal. Combined with 90% emissions cuts, OACC-MES could remove 650 – 1,100 GtC of legacy + soil-and-ocean outgassing CO2 by 2100 – 2275. Atmospheric CO2 could return to 350 – 280 ppm (depending on tropospheric aerosol cuts). Ocean pH could rise accordingly. Atmospheric CO2 drawdown will trigger ocean & soil-carbon outgassing, so CO2 cannot be expected to drop below 350 ppm by 2100. To reduce dangerous cold-water UIC risks from overuse of artificial upwelling to fertilize a 10 GtC/yr OACC-MES diatom “sprint”, it may be better to “slow-walk” diatom OACC-MES at 3.3 GtC/yr. Biochar sequestration, direct air capture, mesopelagic CDR, EHUX/trichodesmium photosynthesis, and other ocean aqua-culture65,66 could collectively sink another 1.4 GtC/yr, for a total CO2 removal rate of 4.7 GtC/yr and more than 3x lower UIC risks.
The 4.7 GtC/yr “slow-walking” CDR-composite (CDR-C) comprising diatom OACC-MES, BCS, DAC, MP-CDR, EHUX & trichodesmium photosynthesis, and other ocean aqua-culture could restore 350 ppm CO2 by 2195. (The latter six could minimize cold-water upwelling.) Regardless of whether an OACC-MES solo sprint (@ 10 GtC/yr) or a CDR-C “slow walk” (@ 4.7 GtC/yr) is chosen, restoring ≤ 350 ppm CO2 is necessary for ocean acidity abatement.
Two paradigm shifts are concurrently required
To forestall sixth mass (marine) extinction35,40, the following initial paradigm shift is recommended:
#1.) High-impact CO2 removal must BEGIN restoring ocean alkalinity by 2035
Alkalinity restoration via de-carbonation by high-impact OACC-MES CDR is key. Added OH- infusion could occur by ANFN NO3- fertilized diatom photosynthesis directly releasing 17 OH- for each 106 CO2 consumed57. (NH4NO3 fertilized photosynthesis only releases 1 OH- for each 106 CO2 consumed57). OACC-MES may begin with NH4NO3 in 2035, but fertilizer should partly switch to ANFN NO3- by 2055. “Slow-walking” OACC-MES (the CDR-C option) could take until 2195 to restore 350 ppm CO2. A combination of NZE, OACC-MES de-carbonation, ANFN-fertilized photosynthetic OH- release, plus OH- from lithogenic particle flocculation and Ca(OH)2 infusion62 could accelerate alkalinity restoration. A warming reprieve is needed to buy time for OACC-MES sprinting (or slow-walking CDR-composite (CDR-C)) with OH- infusion62 to restore ocean alkalinity and 350 ppm CO2. Both require a 2nd paradigm shift. Need is magnified by threats of Eemian-magnitude polar ice collapse, 30 ft sea-rise, an era of superstorms, and ≥ 4 to ≥ 90 GtC of polar CH4 release50,51,51a at 1.9°C warming5-7. The 2nd paradigm shift is:
#2.) Whole-earth cooling must restore preindustrial temperature (∆T = 0°C) by 204010
Early whole-earth SRM cooling10 could defuse short-term catastrophic climate change, plus tipping levels for collapse of polar permafrost and ice sheets. (Ice collapse at 1.9°C threatens massive release of underlying polar CH4, ~30 ft of permanent sea rise, and many centuries of Eemian-magnitude superstorms5-7,50,51,51a). SRMs and SPSC11 could defuse Eemian impacts and buy extra time for high-impact CO2 removal & ocean alkalinity restoration.
Whole-earth cooling offsets10 should be maintained continuously, . . . gradually tapering off as CO2 draws down, until preindustrial temperature (∆TGLOBAL = 0°C) self-stabilizes without further albedo modification. That could hypothetically buy humanity a reprieve (by 2040) from escalating warming crises and the worst impending ravages of climate change. In that case, OACC-MES sprinting or CDR-C slow-walking could be allowed an extra century (or more) to remove 650 – 1,100 GtC of CO2 from the atmosphere (and from future soil and ocean outgassing). That could permanently restore ocean alkalinity via dissolved CO2 outgassing (requiring CDR offset) in response to atmospheric drawdown. Unaided planetary radiation balance could naturally stabilize at a pseudo-preindustrial condition (∆TGLOBAL = 0°C) at some point from 2100 to 2275 (depending on OACC-MES option choices), with CO2 likely stabilizing somewhere between 350 and 280 ppm (depending on tropospheric aerosol pollution)36. Albedo modification and OACC-MES and CDR options could then end or be scaled back.
This paper outlines prospects for breathing new life into old ocean fertilization concepts which mostly failed in repeated trials over the past 40 years15,16. Failures occurred in fertile coastal waters or high-latitude fertile oceans (HLFO) with no thermocline. Natural upwelling provided primary nutrients, but often lacked sufficient iron and was subject to NO3- limitation. Iron fertilization cheaply provided 1 missing ingredient for algal blooms to temporarily capture extra CO2 at the surface. However, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) leakage (under NO3- limitation stress) plus abundant “limiter” populations (viruses, grazers, and surface decomposition bacteria) in HLFO waters almost invariably prevented efficient export of captured carbon to seafloor by releasing it as DOC or as CO2 from ocean surface layers. DOC leakage, lysis, grazing, and decomposition prevailed. Carbon capture was cheap and easy, but export was neither efficient, nor consistent, owing to limiter loss pathways (LLPs) from upper sunlit layers. That’s a fundamental limit blocking efficient CO2 removal in fertile oceans (HLFO). LeMoigne et al15 and Underwood16 therefore remind us that CO2 export is inversely related to primary HLFO productivity.
TABLE-1. High Latitude Fertile Ocean (HLFO) barriers to CO2 export (by micro-algae)
Secondary open-ocean diatom blooming could consistently overwhelm sparse MLLO3 limiters from Day-1 by seeding nursery-harvested diatoms at their exponential open-ocean growth thresholds, paired with artificial upwelling of Si(OH)4, H2PO4-, and Fe, plus surface fertilization with extra Fe, NO3-, and trace B-vitamins. That could give diatoms their optimal Redfield nutrient ratios. Exponential blooming could begin immediately and proceed to maturity without interference. Permanent trapping of atmospheric CO2 could be accomplished on Day 6 or 7 by safely sinking diatoms to the deep ocean floor . . . taking full advantage of their transparent exopolymer (TEP) exudation mechanism2-6. Inoculating mature diatoms (e.g. T. weissflogii) with diatom-attaching bacteria (DAB) halts photosynthesis and initiates TEP exudation. As individual 40 μm diameter diatoms exude sticky TEP, they readily form 1 – 4 mm aggregate clumps that are polymer-protected from decomposition. 1 – 4 mm diatom aggregates sink rapidly (50 – 300 meters/day2-6) following Stokes’ Law—versus just a few centimeters per day (without DAB-triggered TEP aggregation). Rapid sinking via DAB inoculation and TEP-induced aggregation permanently traps the captured carbon. This eliminates premature re-release of CO2 or dissolved organic carbon (DOC), . . . which can otherwise occur with decomposition of individual dead diatoms.
In fertile oceans, limiters interfere with carbon export by only allowing a minor fraction of diatoms to mature and aggregate via DAB & TEP. However, in an MLLO3 setting, OACC-MES could bypass carbon export-disabling limiter loss pathways (LLPs). Limiter sparsity could allow essentially all amplified diatom blooms to mature and aggregate via well-timed DAB inoculation. That could finally enable > 90% CO2 capture and export efficiency.
We’ve proposed liquid CO2 (LCO2) byproduct (captured from CCS fossil energy & CCS NH4NO3 production) for accelerating sealed ocean bioreactor production of diatom seed amounts capable of bypassing inertial lag phase for secondary open-ocean blooms. Figs. 2 – 4 show fast-forwarding open-ocean diatom blooming to exponential growth on Day-1. Elevated nursery-seeding vaulting open-sea MLLO3 fertilized diatom blooming to Day-1 exponential phase (Fig. 2, ZOOM-A) could coincide with optimal surface temperature37 adjustment. Transient fertilization with artificial upwelling, mixing/diluting nutrient-rich, deep seawater (DSW) at 27% into 73% MLLO3 surface water could remedy MLLO3 nutrient lack of Si(OH)4, H2PO4-, some of the required NO3-, and most of the required Fe. Extra NO3-, Fe, and trace B-vitamins could be surface-supplemented. Metering & balancing surface-dosed nutrients precisely on the Redfield-ratio should prevent dissolved organic carbon (DOC) leakage, accelerate diatom blooming (Fig. 2, segment AB), and enable metered-dose fertilizer consumption while leaving behind a post-bloom H2PO4- excess sufficient to selectively favor the next month’s EHUX OASR rotation cycle10.
OACC-MES diatom blooming (Fig. 2 (AB)) could overwhelm sparse MLLO3 limiters on Day-1 (ZOOM-A) of secondary open-ocean blooming. Blooms could mature (AB) without limiter interference or captured-CO2 loss. MLLO3 bloom sites are identified (violet & deep blue color-coded areas of Fig. 1) as target zones for seeding with nursery harvest (Fig. 2, ZOOM-A) and artificial transient surface fertilization of OACC diatom blooming (AB). Fig. 3 (N) shows natural limiter sparsity in targeted MLLO3 zones could allow fertilized diatoms to mature without loss of captured CO2. Targeted MLLO3 sites could yield up to 10 GtC/yr of diatom CO2 capture (Fig. 4 (R)).
MLLO3 surface water and local artificial upwelling (“air-lift” bubbling LAU8 with longer, thicker-walled pipes and bigger compressors powered by SMR micro-nuclear energy17,52-53) could enable DSW upwelling from 1 Km depth. (Note: OTEC is an alternate coastal power source that could conceivably be adapted to MLLO3 by “piggy-backing” onto LAU operations.) Nutrient-rich 5°C deep seawater (DSW) could be partly warmed and diluted in a 1 : 3.75 ratio . . . yielding a 13°C – 23°C tropical or subtropical surface-mix to maximize diatom blooming (AB) and DAB-induced aggregate export (BC) of captured CO2 (Figs. 2 – 4). MLLO3 sites could benefit from DSW cooling. (Hurricane intensities may diminish with surface cooling. T. weissflogii blooming also diminishes above 23°C.)
Carbon export must follow carbon capture. Because post-bloom non-aggregated diatom sinking is slow (only a few cm/day), even sparse MLLO3 limiter populations may interfere with export of captured CO2 to seafloor. We propose separate sealed MLLO3 bioreactor-culturing of diatom-attaching bacteria (DAB). Open-sea diatom inoculation with DAB could be withheld until diatoms mature and a full CO2 quota is captured. Bioreactor-cultured DAB could be inoculated into mature open-sea diatom blooms near the end of exponential-phase growth, while diatoms are still photosynthetically active2-6. DAB inoculation terminates blooming and induces diatoms to exude transparent exopolymer particle (TEP)2-6. TEP is sufficiently “sticky” to aggregate slow-sinking 40-micron diatoms into 1 – 4 mm exopolymer-coated aggregate clumps. The aggregates sink more rapidly and should export the entire bloom to deep seafloor at rates of 50 – 300 meters/day2-6. This (plus nutrient-balanced diatom stress-alleviation and suppression of DOC leakage) could vault MLLO3 carbon export to ≥ 90% efficiency. That portends vast improvement over fertile ocean export of ≤ 10% to ≤ 1%16. (NOTE: DAB naturally aggregates mature diatoms in high latitude fertile oceans (HLFO), but high-stress DOC leakage & limiter interference release ≥ 90% of captured carbon before blooms reach maturity or aggregate16. Less than 10% of HLFO diatoms remain to interact with DAB, exude TEP, and aggregate. HLFO export of captured carbon therefore remains very poor16.)
A potential unintended consequence (UIC). Excessively frequent OACC-MES blooming could trigger an adverse shift toward mesotrophic surface ecology in oligotrophic oceans, as initially sparse MLLO3 limiter populations grow and limiters accumulate in response to repeated fertilized diatom blooming. As limiter populations reach problematic levels, diatom captured carbon could be prematurely released (to atmosphere) from formerly oligotrophic sunlit ocean layers. Barring significant prevention, premature CO2 release could once again limit carbon export efficiency to the range 1 – 10% (or less), as currently happens in fertile oceans. That could hamper 21st and 22nd century carbon export and CO2 drawdown.
Oligotrophic conditions could rebound monthly if preventive measures introduce 3-week fallow resting periods or rapid (3 – 5 day) limiter-rereset flocculation events between blooms, after each diatom surface seeding, fertilization, and CO2 removal cycle ends. Figs. 2 – 4 illustrate how that could be accomplished via short-cycle, pulse-modulated diatom blooming and oligotrophic reset. Sealed seed-production bioreactor nursery drones filled with limiter-free deep seawater (DSW) and Redfield-balanced nutrients18, infused with 0.1 – 1% CO2 (from LCO2 boil-off), and alkalinity-adjusted with Ca(OH)2 could produce enough diatoms to secondarily seed intense 6-day open-ocean bloom pulses. Exponential open-sea blooming could begin on Day-1, . . . maturing and capturing a full quota of CO2 by Day-6. Stress-free (Redfield-ratio-fertilized) bloom pulses wouldn’t leak DOC. Blooms would terminate as separately-cultured diatom-attaching bacteria (DAB) are added on Day-6. DAB would induce mature diatoms to exude TEP and aggregate into exopolymer-coated clumps that sink 50 – 300 meters/day2-6. New-growth limiter accumulation could be blocked by withholding diatom seed and nutrient from vacated open-ocean bloom zones long enough to force fallow “oligotrophic reset”. Without hosts or nutrients, new-growth limiters should die back to original pre-bloom sparsity within ~3 weeks, . . . fully restoring oligotrophic conditions and completing the pulse cycle. Pulses could repeat monthly. Pulse modulation could enable ten to twelve major global-scale blooms annually, instead of the natural one or two. Monthly pulse-modulation OACC-MES (including DOC suppression and oligotrophic reset) from multiple MLLO3 sites could hypothetically accumulate up to 10 GtC/yr of diatom carbon capture and aggregate export as in Fig. 4, without limiters catching up or accumulating beyond pre-bloom sparsity (S).
If natural (fallow) oligotrophic reset takes longer than 3 weeks, or if a greater pulse modulation frequency (than one per month) is desired, this paper also offers a Fig. 3 option to shorten oligotrophic reset to 3 – 5 days (instead of 3 weeks or more). (See the dashed-black ( – – – ) “limiter flocculation” curve of Fig. 3.)
In that case, post-aggregation spraying of vacated MLLO3 photic zones with slurries of hydrated silica gel or lithogenic particles could flocculate, ballast, and sink new-growth limiters, residual non-aggregated diatoms, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) leakage, and excess exudates to accelerate oligotrophic reset. If desired, 2 complete pulses per month could hypothetically occur and 17 – 24 intense blooms/year might be possible in a CO2 drawdown “super-sprint” mode. That would depend on the availability of sufficient financial and fertilizer resources. It would also depend on unintended consequences (super-sprinting UICs) not manifesting. Under favorable conditions (sufficient resources and no UICs), OACC-MES super-sprinting could increase annual CO2 drawdown rates from 10 GtC/yr to 17 (or even 24) GtC/yr.
However, financial and nutrient resource limitation plus super-sprint UICs seem likely, so a less frenetic 10 GtC/yr CO2 maximum drawdown sprint may be better. That’s our “sprint” calculation basis. If resources or UIC risks cannot sustain (or allow) a 100 year CO2 drawdown at 10 GtC/yr, this paper outlines an alternative slower-walking OACC-MES CO2 drawdown schedule in Figs. 6 – 7 and Table 2. (But first, . . . a new post-COVID pandemic emissions forecast appears in Fig. 5 below.)
IEA21, Biden Administration22, and IPCC (RCP-2.6)29 emissions cutting projections are a lot more optimistic than curve A*. IEA, Biden, and IPCC (RCP-2.6) scenarios portend post-pandemic emissions falling steadily after 2021—reaching NET ZERO by 2050 – 207021,22,29. (Notes: IEA Special Report21 uses GtCO2 emission units, but Fig. 5 uses GtC. To compare plots, IEA’s GtCO2 values should be divided by 3.65. IPCC indicates only 50% probability of RCP-2.6 prevailing among RCP scenarios29. They cite equal probability for RCP-4.5 occurring (or worse IPCC scenarios (RCP-6.0 and 8.5)).
We don’t think IEA or Biden NZE 2050 forecasts21,22 are achievable by stringent emissions-cutting alone. IEA describes their “NZE-by-2050” scenario as “narrow” and “formidable”. We believe CRT’s relaxed curve A* targets are more realistic, given humanity’s history of inertia, procrastination, and lack of any real net (pre-pandemic) progress on global emissions cutting. (We envision inertia and procrastination prevailing until ~2035 or 2040.) Figs. 5 – 7 (plus Table 2) show A* relaxed emissions cuts (EC-34 & EC-90) could still enable NZE by 2040 – 2055, if combined with high-impact CO2 removal (via a 10 GtC/yr OACC-MES sprint or a slower-walking 4.7 GtC/yr CDR composite, respectively).
In Fig. 5, a constant value of 1 GtC/yr is assumed for post-2075 A* gross emissions, reflecting limits on emissions cuts expected with future doubled global middle class population, doubled global GDP, and correspondingly rising energy demand23,25,26. Curve A* takes into account recent indications by developing countries and selected populous industrial nations that they don’t expect to meet stringent IEA, U.N., IPCC, Paris, COP26, and U.S. emissions cutting targets21,47-49. It also takes into account the increasingly apparent reality that renewables alone cannot meet today’s global energy demand47,51, much less increased near-future (21st century) demand52.
Fig. 6 offers several new CO2 capture and export target options for offsetting CRT curve A* emissions.
Fig. 6 curves V and CDR-C (R + N combined) are two example choices for offsetting Fig. 5 emissions curve A*. For these two capture and export options, specific targeted end-dates for 350 ppm and/or 280 ppm restoration appear in Fig. 7 and Table 2 below. Fig. 6 option V (or option CDR-C) is to be subtracted from curve A* gross-emissions (Fig. 5) to yield net emissions. Net emissions (computed from curve A* minus curve V (or A* minus curve CDR-C) are converted to ppm atmospheric CO2 in Fig. 7 below, according to equation-1 (EQ-1). (EQ-1 contains a proportion with net emissions for each year ratioed to 9.8 GtC/yr (a recent value corresponding to 2.3 ppm/yr atmospheric [CO2] rise28).)
• EQ-1: Atmospheric PPM(year) = PPM (year-1) + ((net emissionsa(year) /9.8) x 2.3) … net emissionsa (with sign) must be in GtC units
EQ-1 iteration begins at 412 ppm (known 2019(year-1) PPM value21) and continues annually until CO2 drawdown targets are met. Fig. 7 shows PPM rising initially with positive net emissions, which later turn negative. (PPM rises, peaks, and declines as Fig. 5 emissions and Fig. 6 capture & export unfold per EQ-1 to meet Fig. 7 targets (@ 350 and/or 280 ppm.)
CDR Option OACC-MES
Solo Sprint Composite
Net emissions Code† A*- V A*- (CDR-C)
Drawdown rate (GtC/yr) 10 4.7
Start date (fully ramped CDR) 2035 2035
NetZero emissions year 2040 2055
Date for 350 ppm 2100 2195
Years to 350 ppm (from start) 65 160
Annual cost (% of Sprint) 100% 47%
Total cost (% of Sprint) 100% 116%
# Generations sharing costs 2.5 6
Date for 280 ppm 2135 2275
Years to 280 ppm (from start) 100 240
# Generations sharing costs 4 9
Max. ppm 450 460
Years > 450 ppm 0 40
LAU UIC risks (from 5°C DSW) 10 ≤ 3
Ocean acidity risk 2 5
O3 layer UIC (via oceanic N2O) 3 ≤ 1
**CRT emissions curve A* is used in both CDR options. (Note. IEA, Biden, and IPCC (RCP-2.6) emissions cuts21,22,29 are unrealistic and not considered here. (Only curve A* is used in Table-2.)) Both CDR Table-2 options are primarily driven by OACC-MES drawdown, with impacts exceeding anything realistically offered by IPCC, IEA, Paris, COP26, Biden, or Green New Deal plans. However, Table-2 OACC-MES Solo Sprint LAU-UIC (risk = 10) from too much 5°C DSW may require extra DSW surface warming. The CDR Composite Slow Walk poses considerably less LAU-UIC (risk ≤ 3)—but its 40 years > 450 ppm (with correspondingly exaggerated ocean acidity (risk = 5) very likely requiring periodic coastal and MLLO3 acidity offsets with Ca(OH)2 infusion62 until CO2 drawdown targets are met. What is clearly needed to mitigate acidification in MLLO3 open oceans is to ramp up OACC-MES at the earliest opportunity, starting with NH4NO3 nutrient in 2035. Permanent acidity mitigation will occur via oceanic decarbonation occuring as OACC-MES draws atmospheric CO2 down according to Fig. 7 and Table-2. Corresponding Henry’s Law response will remove oceanic carbonic acid via dissolved CO2 outgassing. (Note: The outgassed CO2 must also be removed by CDR.) To accelerate alkalinity restoration . . . by 2055 a substantial fraction of the nitrogen fertilizer should switch from NH4NO3 to ANFN-bioreactor-produced NO3-, which induces extra OH- release (via diatom photosynthesis)57. The combination of OACC-MES induced decarbonation (in the long term), plus shorter-term flocculation, photosynthetic OH- release57, and Ca(OH)2 infusion57 . . . could collectively mitigate ocean acidification risk with Composite Slow Walk CDR.
Reality, Achievability, and Impact Summary (Fig. 7 and Table 1 (A* emissions and CDR options)).
Reality, Achievability, and Impact Summary (Figs. 5 – 7 and Table 2 (A* emissions and CDR options)).
COVID-pandemic CO2 emissions reductions were temporary. Emissions are rising again as economies recover25,26. Fig. 5 (A*) emissions may portend reality for Fig. 7 & Table 2. A popular majority currently assigns low priority to cutting emissions. They continue to allow personal financial worries and other short-term crises to displace longer term climate concerns. Emissions increased ~6% in 2021. Atmospheric CO2 is projected to reach an average of 419 ppm for 2022. CO2 levels are increasing ~2.3 ppm/yr28 . . . yet climate suffering has not yet produced sufficient desperation to convince a majority to embrace high-impact intervention. Climate suffering and ocean acidity may reach “perfect storm” proportions as 450 ppm CO2 arrives in 2035. As that certainty looms larger, humanity may finally choose to embrace Fig. 5 A* emissions cuts and higher-impact intervention involving whole-earth SRM cooling10, SPSC11, aggressive CO2 removal (CDR), and OH- infusion.
Both Table 2 options (OACC-MES Solo Sprint & Composite Slow Walk) should hypothetically be equal to the CDR challenge. Composite Slow Walk may offer the best compromise between efficacy, speed, safety, multi-generational cost-sharing, ocean pH, and local-artificial-upwelling unintended consequences (LAU UICs). Cold-DSW-related LAU UIC risks9,38 are highest for the OACC-MES Solo Sprint and lowest for the Composite Slow Walk (which would utilize 3x less cold DSW, portending at least 3x less cold-water UIC risk). It seems likely cold-water DSW UICs could exhibit nonlinear behavior, featuring an appearance threshold, below which UICs may not manifest. The Composite Slow Walk may thereby dilute UICs below their appearance threshold. In that case, Composite Slow Walking could be essentially free of cold-water DSW UICs. Cold-water DSW impact could even be beneficial, . . . perhaps reducing hurricane intensity and frequency.
However, ocean acidity risks increase with Composite Slow Walking. To restore alkalinity, the CDR-C Composite Slow-Walk, plus infusing coastal and MLLO3 waters with Ca(OH)262, should start by 2035. NO3- fertilization can start with NH4NO3, but partial switching to ANFN NO3- fertilizer for diatom and EHUX photosynthesis should occur by ~2055. Fig. 5 (A*) emissions cuts, NZE by 2055, Composite Slow Walk de-carbonation, photosynthetic OH- release57, flocculation OH-, and Ca(OH)2 surface infusion62 could collectively boost alkalinity restoration. If above-listed mitigation steps are taken, the Composite Slow Walk may offer the least invasive, safest, and best compromise, plus extra multi-generational cost sharing.
LAU UIC risks are ≥ 3x worse with OACC-MES Solo Sprinting. Micro-nuclear (SMR) warming9 of LAU-DSW could help. For Solo Sprinting, added DSW warming could derive from nutrient pre-concentration by film evaporation (NPFE)9. NPFE could evaporate LAU-DSW 20x. Diluting warm NPFE concentrate 75x in MLLO3 could optimize final concentrations and eliminate cold-water UICs. For both CDR options, modeling studies are needed to assess whether monthly mixing 27% of cold nutrient-rich DSW directly into MLLO3 surface water (without auxiliary warming) risks adversely affecting weather patterns or disrupting MLLO3 thermocline9,58. If too much cold DSW is mixed in too often, oligotrophic oceans could become mesotrophic. (Thermocline loss could lead to natural nutrient upwelling). Resulting uncontrolled algal blooming and CO2 drawdown could slowly cause another ice age38. A less extreme impact of raising too much cold nutrient-rich DSW could be a reduction in surface water evaporation as the Gulf Stream flows north along the Atlantic coast of the Americas38. That water must remain warm enough to evaporate-in-passing Central America, to keep the Gulf Stream salty. Saltiness (combined with high-latitude northern cooling) normally enables this water to sink rapidly near Iceland38. Tropical Atlantic evaporation and polar sinking drive the thermo-haline “ocean conveyor belt” which regulates climate38. Too much cold DSW raised in Gulf Stream tropics could prevent critical evaporation and saltiness, jamming the ocean conveyor belt and deregulating climate38. Composite Slow Walk offers best prospects for defusing LAU UICs by raising 3x less cold DSW. NPFE, micro-nuclear energy SMRs, and CaO heat-of-solution (during Ca(OH)2 infusion62) could also warm LAU DSW9, prevent Si, P, and Fe sinking-losses, and substantially mitigate cold-water UICs for either Table-2 CDR option.
An extra 100 years’ reprieve from warming & acidity could be granted for Composite Slow Walking CDR via multi-tiered SRM whole-earth cooling (∆TGLOBAL = 0°C) and SPSC super-cooling (∆TPOLAR < 0°C) by 204010,11, plus coastal and MLLO3 Ca(OH)2 infusion62, flocculation, and ANFN NO3- fertilization of MLLO3 diatom and EHUX photosynthesis10,57. Whole-earth cooling10, SPSC11, LAU-DSW warming, and multi-tiered OH- infusion working concurrently with Composite Slow Walking CDR + EC-34/90 could alleviate the worst impacts of climate change and ocean acidity, hypothetically making earth “livable” again by 2040, while safeguarding marine life in the long term. This summarizes CRT’s multi-tiered Earth2040 vision.
Stratospheric ozone-layer UIC from oceanic N2O. Nitrous oxide is a potent greenhouse gas, but low concentration makes it only of tertiary warming concern29. Ultraviolet photolysis is of more concern—regarding stratospheric UV singlet oxygen O(1D) initiation, secondarily converting N2O to nitric oxide (NO). NO destroys stratospheric ozone in a cyclic path that also regenerates NO39. N2O emissions are mostly from agriculture. Currently, only 15% are oceanic N2O emissions from high-latitude fertile oceans (HLFO) where upwelling NO3- fertilizes ~11 GtC/yr of natural algal blooming and carbon capture. However, that mostly escapes the CDR budget because 90% of HLFO-captured carbon releases back to atmosphere. Natural HLFO oceanic CO2 capture releases about 15% of global N2O. A 10 GtC/yr OACC-MES Solo Sprint may therefore NOT be recommended for MLLO3 waters. Barring mitigation, oceanic N2O emissions & stratospheric O3-depletion could nearly double if NO3- fertilization were utilized for 10 GtC/yr of MLLO3 diatom blooms plus 1.7 GtC/yr of OASR EHUX blooming10.
Diatom-based OACC-MES & EHUX-based OASR10 are envisioned to start with CCS NH4NO3 fertilizer in 2035, with partial ANFN NO3- fertilizing by ~2055. ANFN NO3- risks doubling oceanic N2O emissions (relative to NH4NO3). In any case, N2O will rise to stratosphere and react with singlet oxygen (O(1D)) to form nitric oxide (NO) which destroys stratospheric ozone, including steps that regenerate the NO39. Nevertheless, costs and the need to increase ocean alkalinity demand a partial switch from NH4NO3- to ANFN NO3- fertilizing of OACC-MES and OASR by ~2055. In addition to OACC-MES de-carbonation (alkalinity rise), NO3- fertilized photosynthesis could release an extra 17 OH- for each 106 CO2 captured57. Partial switching to ANFN NO3- fertilizer is therefore advised.
However, it seems inadvisable to pursue a 10 GtC/yr OACC-MES Solo Sprint. That could risk excessive stratospheric ozone-destruction by 3x more oceanic N2O emissions. We strongly recommend the Composite Slow Walk instead. In that case, the general NO3- requirement would be three-fold reduced (compared to Solo Sprinting). Composite Slow Walking means stratospheric ozone-depletion UIC risk would be at least three-fold reduced, and possibly a lot more, if the UIC response function is discovered to be nonlinear with N2O concentration. (Possibly even lower yet, if there is a UIC appearance threshold, below which the Composite Slow Walk can “dilute” the stratospheric ozone-depletion UIC.) It would be difficult to overstate the importance of minimizing stratospheric O3-depletion. With HLFO oceanic emissions naturally contributing 15% of global N2O and agriculture contributing ~85%, the MLLO3 Composite Slow Walk (at only 3.3 GtC/yr of OACC-MES CDR) would only add maximum 5% to the global N2O total, and possibly a lot less if nonlinear UIC response plus an appearance threshold exist. That could hypothetically make offsetting N2O mitigation much easier to manage.
Inland offsets could mitigate both agricultural and oceanic N2O emissions9. We recommend N2O mitigation be conducted inland, involving agricultural N2O alone9. Agricultural industries currently over-fertilize without deriving proportional benefit. This could be remedied by cutting agricultural nitrogen fertilizer ~6%. That alone could cut the agricultural N2O UIC contribution from 85% to ~79%. If OACC-MES Composite Slow Walking adds back 5% and the organic carbon fraction of EHUX-based OASR10 adds ~1%, total N2O emissions in 2060 would remain unchanged (79 + 6 + 15 = 100%) from the current global total. That assumes 100% switchover to ANFN NO3- fertilizer for OACC-MES and OASR by 2055. A partial switchover (e.g., 50%) could release even less NO2.
Additional inland N2O offsets will be addressed in a future communication. With agriculture representing the bulk of N2O emissions, and with that industry currently over-fertilizing beyond diminishing returns, it seems reasonable to suggest a 6% nitrogen-based fertilizer reduction for agriculture. That could more than offset composite (CDR-C) OACC-MES N2O emissions. Further inland N2O mitigation could lower global N2O emissions below today’s value, even with adding OASR10 and Slow-Walk OACC-MES. (Both could start with CCS NH4NO3 fertilizer in the 2030s, and then partially switch to ANFN NO3- by 2055, to help restore ocean alkalinity57).
Technical Summary Details: Sealed floating MLLO3 bioreactor drones could contain nutrient-rich, limiter-free, deep seawater (locally artificially upwelled (LAU) from 1 Km depth, filtered, warmed, and lightly chlorinated10 (plus thiosulfate to neutralize excess Cl2)). Drones could be infused with 0.1 – 1% CO2 from LCO2 boil-off. (LCO2 byproduct from inland CCS fossil energy.) Bioreactor DSW could be adjusted to pH 8.2 with Ca(OH)2. Starter seed and trace B-vitamins, plus extra Fe and dilute NH4NO3 (or ANFN NO3-) could enable bioreactors to serve as high-output semi-continuous diatom seed-production nurseries. Secondarily seeding nursery diatoms into mid-to-low-latitude oligotrophic open oceans (MLLO3), along with Redfield-balanced nutrients from the same sources could trigger exponential open-ocean diatom blooming on day-1, bypassing inertial lag phases. (See Fig. 2.)
MLLO3 limiters (viruses, grazers, bacteria, and competing algae) are sparse18. That could enable fertilized diatom nursery seed to locally overwhelm limiters, accelerating secondary open-ocean diatom blooming and enabling maturation without significant interference. Redfield-balanced nutrition18 and limiter sparsity could allow stress-free diatom blooming without DOC leakage7. Secondary MLLO3 diatom blooms could mature without losing captured CO2. Late exponential phase diatom inoculation with separately-cultured diatom attaching bacteria (DAB) could preserve the photosynthetic activity required for DAB-induction of diatoms to exude transparent exo-polymer particle (TEP)2-6. Sticky TEP aggregates 40 μm diatoms into 1 – 4 mm polymer-coated clumps, . . . still containing captured CO2 and protected against decomposition. Diatom aggregates sink 50 – 300 meters/day2-6, potentially short-circuiting CO2 release mechanisms and hypothetically solving the long-standing carbon export problem. Aggregation may also inhibit seafloor decomposition of TEP-coated diatoms.
Coupling this with Redfield-balanced nutrition18 could suppress DOC leakage and enable long-term storage of diatom-captured CO2, removing 3.3 – 10 GtC/yr of atmospheric CO2, plus outgassing labile soil-carbon and outgassing ocean-dissolved CO2. With 10 GtC/yr CO2 removal beginning in 2040, plus 34% emissions cuts by 2050 and 90% cuts by 2075, cumulative drawdown could reach 650 GtC, with 350 ppm CO2 and ocean pH 8.11 being restored by ~2100 in sprint mode. If (by 2100) tropospheric aerosol pollution reaches levels forecasted by Hansen, et al36,41, then OACC-MES and SRM albedo modification must cease. (350 ppm CO2 is the value Hansen, et al project to provide warming for offsetting negative planetary radiation imbalance (over-cooling induced by tropospheric aerosol albedo expected to arrive by 210036,41)). If tropospheric aerosol pollution is sufficiently reduced by 2100, OACC-MES could continue CO2 drawdown. The extent and duration of allowable 22nd and 23rd century CO2 drawdown would depend on tropospheric aerosol reduction. If aerosol is restored to preindustrial values (likely unrealistic (?) with a global population ≥ 9 billion), CO2 removal could continue until drawdown accumulates to 1,100 GtC. That could restore 280 ppm CO2 and pre-industrial ocean alkalinity (pH 8.21).
A key point to remember: UIC prevention and mitigation on multiple fronts, plus limited financial resources, may require the Composite Slow Walking option—instead of a 10 GtC/yr OACC-MES Solo Sprint. That is likely required. It would add nearly 100 years, pushing 350 ppm CO2 restoration out to ~2195 and 280 ppm to ~2275 (assuming tropospheric aerosol pollution can be sufficiently reduced to even allow safe return to 280 ppm CO2).
With excess CO2 drawdown requiring 650 – 1,100 GtC of accumulated atmospheric, soil, and ocean-dissolved CO2 removal, OACC-MES Solo Sprint (or more likely our “preferred” Composite Slow Walk CDR), multi-tiered whole-earth SRM albedo modification10, and SPSC11 will be massive undertakings. They will likely last 65 – 100 years with Solo Sprinting (or 160 – 240 years with Composite Slow Walking). Costs may exceed $100 trillion (amortized 65 – 240 years and paid by 3 to 9 generations in ~190 countries). These could become the largest undertakings in human history. However, if history is a reliable indicator, such massive mobilization could result in equally massive economic expansion. An economic “silver lining” may therefore be hidden in this “cloud”.
The Risk Summary (for only pursuing realistic (A*) emissions cuts (EC-34/90) + high-impact CO2 removal (CDR))
Despite realistic (A*) emissions cuts + an OACC-MES Solo Sprint, Figs. 5 – 7 & Table 2 imply near-term post-pandemic resumption of 9.8 GtC/yr of CO2 emissions would still yield 450 ppm CO2 by 2040. A* emissions cuts + the CDR-C Composite Slow Walk could yield a 460 ppm CO2 cap by 2060. These are dangerous CO2 concentrations that risk triggering a variety of tipping levels. Barring independent multi-tiered whole-earth cooling10, 450 ppm CO2 could yield ∆TGLOBAL = 1.5°C by 2040. 460 ppm CO2 could yield ∆TGLOBAL = 1.9°C by 2060. The latter temperature could bring Eemian-magnitude impacts (withering heat, super-drought, global crop failure, unprecedented wildfires and flooding, super-storms, multi-meter sea rise, and massive polar ice collapse10,54-56,31-33). With rapid outgassing of suddenly exposed frozen CH4 hydrates (clathrates previously underlying the ice), massive ice collapse could release from ≥ 4 to ≥ 90 Gt of CH450-51a. Releasing that much CH4 would be globally catastrophic—spiraling beyond control and more than doubling CO2 warming! The combination of realistic emissions cuts and high-impact CDR alone will NOT suffice!
A four-part combination of Earth2040 game-changers is recommended (plus A* emissions cuts).
Multi-tiered SRM Whole-earth Cooling10 and Summer Polar Super-cooling (SPSC)11 could arrive by 2040—assuming concept proofs begin by 2024 and international agency approvals are secured by 2028 – 2030. Pre-industrial temperature (∆TGLOBAL = 0°C) could be restored by 2040 as multi-tiered SRM whole-earth cooling ramps to 1.2% albedo rise10. The worst impacts of polar ice-collapse, multi-meter sea-rise32-33,54-56, and polar CH4 release could be defused within several decades following 2040—assuming SPSC11 achieves ∆TPOLAR = -1°C to -2°C on schedule during polar summers. High-impact multi-tiered CO2 removal (Composite Slow-Walk CDR-C) could also ramp to 4.7 GtC/yr by 2040 to meet CO2 drawdown targets on the schedules indicated by Fig. 7 and Table 2.
The final game-changer must be early restoration of ocean alkalinity. High-impact CDR removal of 650 GtC of CO2 by 2100 – 2195 could restore 350 ppm and ocean pH 8.11. Removing 1,000 GtC by 2135 or ≥ 1,100 GtC by 2275 could restore 280 ppm CO2 and preindustrial climate (with permanent ocean pH 8.21). However, those scenarios are too slow. To accelerate, Ca(OH)2 infusion of dilute OH- may be needed in coastal and MLLO3 waters. (CCS Ca(OH)2 production and OH- infusion concepts will appear in a future communication.) For CDR-C, ANFN-bioreactor NO3- could partially replace NH4NO3 by ~2060. ANFN NO3- should release 17 OH- per 106 photosynthetically-captured CO257.
The Case Summary (for Earth2040 CCS fossil fuel, fertilizer, and algae based climate & ocean restoration).
Scale Requirements (650 – 1,100 GtC CO2 drawdown) may initially suggest the 10 GtC/yr capture/export sprint, plus contingency to offset delays, “down-time”, equipment failure, & global upheaval (wars, pandemics, etc). However, a better alternative to 10 GtC/yr OACC-MES Solo Sprinting may very likely be our 4.7 GtC/yr Composite Slow Walk (CDR-C) comprising 3.3 GtC/yr of diatom OACC-MES CO2 removal (CDR) plus another 1.4 GtC/yr of supplemental CDR from a combination of biochar sequestration (BCS), direct air capture (DAC), mesopelagic CO2 removal (MP-CDR), EHUX10 and trichodesmium photosynthesis, + other oceanic aqua-culture65,66. This composite (CDR-C) could minimize UICs, conserve resources, and share costs among a much larger number of paying generations. Neither scale can be reliably met (including contingency) with emissions cuts alone or unamplified single-stage unity-gain systems alone, such as DAC which merely “capture a ton, bury a ton”—hoping it will mineralize in subterranean peridotite (or olivine) fractured-rock. It should be noted that sub-seafloor drilling through 5 Km of basalt to reach hot peridotite (in an attempt to accelerate mineralization) is not viable storage for 650 – 1,100 GtC of DAC-captured CO2. DAC proponents may underestimate the difficulty of drilling in hot basalt and hot peridotite. They may also be unaware that, on exposure to captured CO2, peridotite passivates, forming a relatively thin MgCO3 layer that blocks further CO2 reaction. Storage capacity for direct air capture (DAC) capacity may therefore limit well under 1 GtC/yr captured CO2.
Our CDR proposal is the Composite Slow Walk (CDR-C) of Figs. 6, 7, and Table 2, featuring 3.3 GtC/yr of diatom OACC-MES CDR, plus the above-listed 1.4 GtC/yr supplemental CDR group (BCS, DAC, MP-CDR, EHUX & trichodesmium photosynthesis, plus other ocean aqua-culture65,66) totaling 4.7 GtC/yr. To ensure 4.7 GtC/yr average CDR, 8 GtC/yr total capacity (including 70% contingency) may be needed. In most years when the contingency allowance isn’t utilized, UICs would diminish. If delays, weather, and global upheaval slow CO2 capture and export in “bad” years, lost productivity could be recovered by activating contingency capacity in “good” years. This could enable 4.7 GtC/yr average capture and export, despite interruptions. At least 3.3 GtC/yr of the 4.7 GtC/yr total Composite Slow Walk drawdown capacity (+ 70% contingency) requires two-stage capture amplification offered by OACC-MES, in which up to 0.4 GtC/yr of LCO2 byproduct from CCS fossil energy (and/or CCS NH4NO3 manufacturing) is converted to 0.4 GtC/yr of diatom seed in nursery bioreactors.
Nursery diatoms can be secondarily seeded into mid-latitude-oligotrophic-open-oceans (MLLO3) with up to 6.6 Gt/yr of Si(OH)4, phosphates, and Fe from nutrient-rich LAU-DSW + 4.4 GtNO3-/yr of surface-dosed ANFN NO3- or 2.8 Gt/yr of CCS NH4NO3 (values include 70% contingency) driving up to 5.6 GtC/yr of secondary open-ocean diatom carbon capture and export (with DAB aggregation) with 70% contingency, plus abundant “ocean desert” seafloor aggregate storage. That capture & export capacity is needed to ensure 650 GtC of OACC-MES CO2 removal (2035 – 2195) in Composite Slow-Walking mode. (Multiply values by 3x for an OACC-MES Solo Sprint).
Ortho-silicic acid, phosphates, and Fe nutrients. The giga-tonne scale of soluble-silicon and phosphate nutrient requirements of diatom-based OACC-MES is well beyond scale-up access for inland fertilizer manufacturing. Available inland silicon is solubility-limited and phosphates are apatite ore-limited (in mining). On-site (local) artificial upwelling (LAU) of nutrient-rich MLLO3 deep seawater (DSW) therefore becomes the most viable remaining source of soluble Si(OH)4 and phosphates for 3.3 – 10 GtC/yr of OACC-MES CDR.
MLLO3 DSW concentrations of soluble-Si and P fortuitously converge on the modified Redfield Ratio for diatoms at MLLO3 depths of ~1 Km63. This may derive from global diatom decomposition during the last ice-age when all seas were fertile, prior to interglacial Holocene thermocline formation. Global ice-age diatom decomposition may have released vast amounts of soluble Si, P, and Fe in a ratio matching the modern Redfield Ratio observed for diatoms. This possibly created soluble Si, P, and Fe DSW reservoirs usable for LAU fertilizing modern-day diatom-based OACC-MES CO2 removal. Holocene formation of warm, stratified seas (oligotrophic open oceans from 40°N – 40°S latitude) could have essentially preserved these vast reservoirs beneath MLLO3 thermoclines for 11,000 years—maintaining DSW reservoirs in an optimal Si:P Redfield concentration ratio. (MLLO3 DSW Fe is slightly deficient—falling “a little short” of the optimal diatom ratio63, and requiring small amounts of additional Fe surface dosing. (Note: Future Fe fallout from a tropospheric iron-salt aerosol program67 may suffice.)
DSW NO3- is however severely limited, . . . likely because of deep-sea denitrification bacteria which would have (long ago) converted most ice-age diatom-decomposition-released NO3- to dissolved N2. With ancient soluble-Si and phosphates optimally preserved at diatoms’ modern Si:P Redfield Ratio (and Fe preserved in nearly an ideal ratio (after diluting LAU-DSW 1:3.75 in MLLO3 surface water)), a primary task of future OACC-MES will be in LAU-raising nutrient-rich (Si, P, and Fe) DSW from 1 Km MLLO3 depths to the surface—and then supplementing with trace B vitamins, minor amounts of surface-dosed iron (or relying on iron salt aerosol67 fallout), and up to 4.4 GtNO3-/yr of ANFN bioreactor NO3- (and/or up to 2.8 Gt/yr of surface-dosed CCS NH4NO3). (NOTE: These calculated fertilizer values already include 70% contingency for the OACC-MES (CDR-C) Composite Slow Walk). Assuming the full contingency wouldn’t be used every year, 2.8 Gt NH4NO3/yr capacity becomes average ~1.7 Gt NH4NO3/yr usage, which is about seven times current world NPK fertilizer production.
NH4NO3 is made from natural gas and air, so seven-fold scaleup of inland CCS NH4NO3 production could be within reach. If scaling incentives are provided and vast natural gas deposits beneath the seafloor can be approved for drilling access, natural gas and fertilizer industries would likely welcome these market expansion and increased revenue opportunities. That could conceivably occur in the time frame 2035 – 2040. Development of ANFN bioreactor capability of producing up to 4.4 GtNO3- (includes contingency), corresponding to ~2.6 GtNO3-/yr average consumption would take longer—perhaps until ~2060.
LAU upwelling from 1 Km MLLO3 depth—the best OACC-MES option for soluble-Si, P, and Fe. Among artificial upwelling methods, the air-lift approach8 seems most readily adaptable for raising LAU-DSW from 1 Km depth. That’s beyond existing air-lift LAU pilot systems designed for ≤ 0.3 Km depth. To increase upwelling access to 1 Km depth, we propose thicker-walled piping and larger air compressors for deeper water air-lift bubbling. SMR micro-nuclear energy could power larger compressors to extend LAU range to 1 Km depth . . . where an optimal MLLO3 ratio of dissolved Si : P prevails for upwelling to support diatom blooming63 —and Fe is nearly sufficient.
Fertilizing success with LAU-DSW Si(OH)4, phosphates, and iron also depends on minimizing the temperature differential (∆TLAU) between cold nutrient-rich DSW and MLLO3 surface water. Excessive ∆T could otherwise cause 5°C LAU-DSW to sink rapidly when abruptly diluted 1 : 3.75 into warm MLLO3 surface water. Besides minimizing earlier-listed cold-water UICs, ∆TLAU adjustment may also be needed for effective LAU-DSW fertilization of OACC-MES blooming (without nutrient sinking). Micro-nuclear SMR surface heat-exchangers could warm compressed air to be used for deep water LAU air-lift bubbling. That could warm LAU-DSW as it air-lifts, thereby reducing the ∆T between air-lifted DSW and relatively warm MLLO3 surface waters into which it mixes. Reducing ΔT between LAU-DSW and MLLO3 surface water is another reason for choosing the Composite Slow Walk (CDR-C) over OACC-MES Solo Sprinting (which otherwise requires 3x more cold LAU-DSW upwelling).
A more extreme tactic for reducing ∆TLAU could be nutrient pre-concentration by film evaporation (NPFE)9. Both room-temperature and heated lab-scale-optimized models of this flow-thru NPFE evaporator have produced rapid 20x volume pre-concentration59,60, including evaporation to dryness. With ocean scaling, efficiently evaporating upwelled 1 Km DSW 20x, and re-diluting the concentrates 75x into warm MLLO3 surface water, the resulting (desired) 1 : 3.75 overall dilution factor could yield essentially optimal concentrations of Si(OH)4, phosphates, and Fe (e.g., matching concentrations of the intense Gullmar Fjord diatom bloom of 19xx64). With 75x dilution of NPFE-warmed LAU-DSW concentrates into MLLO3 surface water, ∆TLAU would no longer present a barrier (or lead to cold-water UICs). In that case, the volume of DSW NPFE (20x concentrate) would be small (~1/75th of the MLLO3 surface water volume into which it dilutes.) DSW “chill” would have effectively shunted to atmosphere from NPFE film evaporators. NPFE warming and volume pre-concentration factors can be easily varied from modest to extreme9.
Minimizing temperature differential (∆T) between LAU-DSW and MLLO3 surface water could be finally aided by coordinating seasonal and geographic latitude of OACC-MES diatom seeding and fertilization operations to balance LAU-DSW warming supplied via (above-mentioned) micro-nuclear (SMR) energy-warmed compressed air bubbling at 1 Km depth, post-LAU-raising (surface) DSW-NPFE film evaporation9, plus final mixing and dilution into warm surface water. (NOTE: A separate communication will explore this topic more thoroughly. For example, LAU DSW vs. surface water ∆T could be minimized by beginning OACC-MES operations at the highest MLLO3 latitudes where surface temperatures are coolest. For example, if we concentrate initial OACC-MES blooming in 30 – 40°N and 30 – 40°S latitude ranges, surface temperatures will be cooler, while thermocline plus the critically important oligotrophic condition, still prevail.)
Another factor is choice of diatom species and its optimal bloom temperature range. For example, T. weissflogii bloom optimally in a relatively wide range (13 – 23°C). For T. weissflogii diatoms, OACC-MES operations could start in the geographic latitude ranges 30 – 40°N and 30 – 40°S latitude, noting seasonal variations in surface temperature. With locally monitoring surface and DSW temperature (typically ~5°C at 1 Km depth), it becomes a straightforward exercise to determine the amount of micro-nuclear (SMR) energy and NPFE9 warming of raised LAU-DSW required to minimize ∆T (to prevent nutrient sinking). The final dilution factor required for mixing LAU-DSW with MLLO3 surface water to obtain optimal (Gullmar-Fjord64) nutrient concentrations in MLLO3 bloom sites and seasons can then be determined. Latitudinal and seasonal surface temperature variation can be compensated by adjusting the amount and combination of SMR micro-nuclear energy warming, NPFE9, and surface dilution. By this means, it should be possible to maximize OACC-MES monthly diatom blooming for about 10 months of the year in 30 – 40°N and 30 – 40°S latitude ranges as operations commence in 2035.
Coordinating OACC-MES CDR-C with whole-earth SRM cooling to utilize LAU over a full MLLO3 latitude range.
So far, we have suggested initially seeding OACC-MES blooms in subtropical zones from 30 – 40°N and 30 – 40°S latitude. This should reduce early micro-nuclear SMR heating requirements and/or the extent of NPFE evaporation9 needed to acceptably diminish the temperature differential (∆T) between cold LAU-DSW and surface water. To (later) extend LAU to lower latitudes where surface waters are warmer (but LAU-DSW still starts at ~5°C as it begins air-lifting from 1 Km depth), we recommend that separate whole-earth solar radiation management (SRM) cooling10 begin early (by 2028) in the oceanic latitude ranges 15 – 30°N and 15 – 30°S.
Whole-earth SRMs for these latitudes could be SRM Tier 3 (second-stage “grazer-attack” EHUX DMS release)10, SRM Tier 4 (stratospheric EHUX coccolith aerosol (SECA))10, and SRM Tier 5 (marine cloud brightening (MCB))10. If initially focused in 15 – 30°N and 15 – 30°S latitudes from 2028 – 2032, these SRMs could get an early start in cooling the local surface waters, in advance of OACC-MES scaleup.
From 2032 – 2036, whole-earth cooling including all SRM cooling tiers10 could be extended to equatorial latitudes (0 ± 15°). If all SRM tiers are completely phased in (40°N – 40°S (all MLLO3 latitudes)) by 2040, substantial progress in low-latitude ocean surface cooling could occur. Tropical surface waters may then be cool enough to introduce all of the earlier-described LAU and OACC-MES practices throughout the entire MLLO3 target zone with acceptably small ∆T differentials between raised LAU-DSW and surface waters. Soluble-Si, phosphates, and Fe may then be effectively raised throughout the MLLO3 target space without requiring excessive amounts of micro-nuclear SMR warming or NPFE evaporation before diluting LAU-DSW into MLLO3 surface waters. In all latitudes and seasons, temperature differentials (ΔT) between LAU-DSW and surface waters should be kept small enough to minimize UICs and avoid appreciable nutrient sinking. However, differentials needn’t be zero. If optimized, they could actually induce moderate beneficial surface cooling of their own, provided nutrients don’t sink rapidly, and they effectively fertilize nursery-seeded diatom blooms.
A CO2 capture & export scale only CCS fossil fuels, CCS fertilizer, diatoms, DAB, CDR-C and MLLO3 can meet. OACC-MES (CDR-C) may be the only plan realistically scalable (+ 70% contingency) to 8 GtC/yr capacity to ensure 4.7 GtC/yr average CO2 removal (Composite Slow Walk), accumulating to 650 GtC removal and restoring 350 ppm CO2 by 2195. Considering scale, contingency, inertia, and the likelihood of peridotite passivation, DAC + EC-90 alone would likely be too slow to prevent apocalyptic warming and acidification. OACC-MES two-stage amplification is required to upstream-enable ≥ 700% negative carbon footprint for CCS fossil energy and CCS fertilizer production. That negative footprint can be LCO2/OACC-MES driven. Other energy and nutrient sources don’t offer LCO2 byproduct, so they’re limited to merely zero carbon footprint, and can’t meet Table 2 targets.
A Nitrogen Fertilizer Ingredient Demand only Natural Gas can meet (2035 – 2060). For 3.3 GtC/yr average CO2 removal, OACC-MES requires 2.6 GtNO3-/yr of ANFN NO3- or 1.7 Gt/yr of NH4NO3 fertilizer. Although rich in Si(OH)4 & phosphates (and nearly adequate in Fe), LAU-DSW is deficient in NO3-. A 10 GtC/yr OACC-MES sprint requires 7.8 GtNO3-/yr of surface dosed ANFN NO3- (or 5 Gt/yr of NH4NO3), which is likely too much—making the Composite Slow Walk a better choice. Amplified nitrogen-fixing & nitrification (ANFN) by drone-amplified beneficial-bacteria (trichodesmium, oxidizing archaea, and nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB)) + Fe & Mo cofactors could meet 2.6 GtNO3-/yr fertilizer demand, but MLLO3 ANFN operations may take until 2060 for development, scaling, and deployment. Inland fertilizer manufacturers may therefore offer the best early option (2035 – 2060). They’d use a CCS NH4NO3 process with natural gas feedstock, cracking off carbon as CO2 via high-temperature reaction of the H2 (product) with atmospheric N2 to make NH3, plus a 2nd high temperature reaction with more NH3 and air. CO2 byproduct could be liquefied. LCO2 and NH4NO3 would then ship to OACC-MES MLLO3 sites.
LCO2 sourcing. For OACC-MES operational scale, CO2 byproduct from initial (2035 – 2060) CCS fossil energy or CCS NH4NO3 production (from natural gas and air) could be captured by an MOF or i-tsa14 CCS process, yielding LCO2 concentrate for shipment to OACC-MES ocean nursery bioreactors. In that scenario, LCO2 byproduct from CCS NH4NO3 manufacturing could hypothetically supply LCO2 needed for the first 20 – 30 years of OACC-MES nursery diatom seed production. (It may take 20 – 30 years to ramp CCS fossil energy to a point where it could partly replace CCS NH4NO3 byproduct LCO2 (for driving OACC-MES nursery diatom seed production) as bioreactor ANFN NO3- partly replaces CCS NH4NO3 (for OACC-MES nitrogen fertilizer production) and finally yields photosynthetic release of 17 OH-per 106 captured CO2 to aid restoration of ocean alkalinity.)
(Note: If CCS fossil energy produces more LCO2 than OACC-MES, OASR, and inland CCU applications can utilize, non-amplified ocean bioreactor blooming could consume excess LCO2 (with DAB-induced aggregation and rapid sinking of bioreactor diatoms) as an alternate LCO2 disposal means and permanent seafloor storage option.)
Fertilizer switching and the changing role of natural gas. MLLO3 bioreactor ANFN NO3- could lower nutrient costs and help restore ocean alkalinity, but it may not be ready for deployment until ~2060. When ANFN bioreactor NO3- finally (or partly) replaces CCS-manufactured ammonium nitrate, the extra global natural gas production (initially ramped up 23% for CCS NH4NO3 manufacturing (2035 – 2060)) could remain at full capacity after 2060, with continuing effective utilization via switching any excess LNG over to CCS fossil energy—to help meet rising energy demand, which is expected to at least double by 2100.)
Industry resources and incentives.
This could incentivize early fossil fuel and fertilizer industry cooperation, which could become a major driving force for high-impact CCS fossil fuel, CCS fertilizer, and micro-algae-based climate and ocean restoration. Willing, enthusiastic early participation by fossil fuel and fertilizer industries could help enable OACC-MES success. These industries possess sufficient resources, knowledge, expertise, and/or deep-sea platform-and-operations experience to help make OACC-MES and timely, high-impact climate and ocean restoration a reality. Industry incentives could comprise up to a 23% increase in natural gas revenue by 2040, just to meet CCS NH4NO3 production demand for OACC-MES Composite Slow Walking.
Industry forecasting suggests an additional 43% increase in natural gas production will be needed by 2040 to meet rising energy demand—especially from an expected explosive increase in middle class populations of India and China. That portends a 66% total increase in natural gas production by 2040, accompanied by a ≥ 700% increase in global fertilizer production for OACC-MES (CDR-C) and OASR. These are the sort of incentives needed to facilitate industry cooperation which could become key drivers for successful, timely, high-impact climate and ocean restoration.
Final CCS fossil energy configurations and CCS NH4NO3 benefits may include:
• Advanced carbonate, MOF, or i-tsa CCS options for fossil power plants, including i-tsa retrofits for older power plants
• Initially ~50% CCS emissions reduction, with prospects for future improvement . . . up to 90% improvement is projected
• Up to 1400% negative carbon footprint for CCS fossil energy and NH4NO3 production, upstream-enabled by OACC-MES
• CCS LCO2 byproduct can also drive 2-stage OASR (EHUX SRM cooling10), in addition to high-impact OACC-MES CDR
• Capacity to help meet doubled energy demand by 2100, while still reducing emissions 50% to 90% (from 2035 values)
• A CCS fossil H2 option could extend emissions reduction to transportation, including easy refueling on longer road trips
• CCS fossil H2 doesn’t require power-grid upgrades (as do electric-car batteries that depend on high-amperage charging)
• Down-scaled/retro-fitted CCS natural gas furnace units could extend 50 – 90% emissions cuts to home/building heating
Earth2040 multi-tiered CDR, multi-tiered SRM whole-earth cooling10, SPSC11, and alkalinity benefits:
• 2-stage 14x-amplified OACC-MES capture, export, & abundant storage of 3.3 – 10 GtC of atmospheric & outgassing CO2
• Meets the criterion for scaling to 3.3 – 10 GtC/yr of average CO2 drawdown sprint capacity (plus ≥ 70% contingency)
• CDR-C is scalable to 4.7 GtC/yr. It offers 650 –1,100 GtC of CO2 capture and export with low UICs (at reduced annual cost)
• 350 ppm CO2 restoration (or 280 ppm, if tropospheric aerosol pollution is also restored to preindustrial levels)
• Ocean alkalinity restoration by CDR-C de-carbonation, ANFN NO3- fertilized photosynthetic OH- release, and flocculation
• Added alkalinity via Ca(OH)2 infusion. (Coastal & MLLO3 seawater-hydrolyzed quick-lime (CaO) from CCS cement plants)
• Prospects for defusing impending sixth (marine) mass extinction (from ocean acidification)
• Multi-tiered SRM whole-earth cooling offers a fast/safe route to restoring ∆TGLOBAL = 0°C by 204010
• Multi-tiered SRM whole-earth cooling and CDR-C offer early prospects for defusing climate and ocean tipping levels10
• Prospects for near-term (2035 – 2040) relief from drought, wild-fire, tornado, hurricane, and inland + coastal flood
• Multi-tiered SRM whole-earth cooling10 + SPSC11 offer prospects for stabilizing polar ice & avoiding multi-meter sea rise
• Adding SPSC11 to multi-tiered SRM whole-earth cooling10 foundation could defuse threat of ≥ 90 GtC polar CH4 release
• Timely high-impact climate and ocean restoration + limits on sea-rise could forestall future global economic collapse
• CDR-C may enable less stringent requirements for emissions cutting (34% by 2050 and 90% by 2075)
• CDR-C, multi-tiered SRM whole-earth cooling10 + SPSC11 offer viable paths for bipartisan legislative support
• CDR-C + Multi-tiered SRM offer a “bridge-over-troubled [climate] waters” for green advocates and fossil industries
• Technology offering unprecedented opportunity for climate adversaries to mend fences and work toward common goals
• Fossil fuel and fertilizer industries could significantly expand markets and increase revenues via OACC-MES
• Prospects for millions new jobs are offered by Earth2040 climate and ocean restoration
Earth2040 climate and ocean restoration could involve the largest mobilization in human history.
Historic mobilization could also drive massive economic expansion.
Earth2040 Concept Release Impetus.
OACC-MES Solo Sprinting and/or CDR-C Composite Slow Walking (including CCS fossil-fuel, CCS fertilizer, and aggregate-algae-driven climate restoration) plus multi-tiered SRM albedo modification for whole-earth cooling by 2040 (paper #1))10 and SPSC (summer polar super-cooling (paper #3))11, are purely theoretical concepts (currently being scrutinized by external reviewers), but not yet proven—except for partial proofs existing in nature and natural history. Relaxed emissions cutting targets (34% by 2050 and 90% by 2075) could depend heavily on CCS fertilizer production and CCS fossil energy . . . in agriculture, power production, transportation, cement and steel production, and home/building heating (paper #6).
We propose Earth2040 concepts to stimulate public discussion in advance of concept proofs, because approvals may be required in advance of in-situ testing. 450 ppm CO2 tipping levels also rapidly approach5,37. Related ocean pH40 and polar ice-collapse31-33,54-56 tipping levels also threaten sea life, risk multi-meter sea rise9-11, and portend catastrophic methane release50-51a in the absence of amplified intervention. Climate suffering approaches crisis levels on many fronts (extreme weather, strong storms, flooding, drought, wildfires, and “farming in hell”). These topics warrant urgent public discussion, advance planning, and much higher-impact intervention. Because time is short for averting near-term tipping levels and preventing warming crises from spiraling beyond control, we felt it necessary to offer this series of papers in advance of concept proofs, to stimulate timely discussion of more effective, higher-impact, and amplified intervention options.
Future Communications (in the Earth2040 series)
A third paper will cover summer polar super-cooling (SPSC ∆T < 0 °C) to help re-stabilize polar ice.
A fourth paper will cover CCS CaO production (for Ca(OH)2 infusion) to accelerate ocean alkalinity restoration.
A fifth paper will provide more detail on MLLO3 surface temperature adjustment, micro-nuclear energy, NPFE, and latitudinal phasing of whole-earth SRM cooling tiers as they relate to LAU-DSW fertilization.
A sixth paper will cover meeting future doubled energy demand and realistic emissions cutting targets (34% cuts by 2050 and 90% by 2075 across multiple energy sectors—based on CCS fossil hydrogen and CCS fossil energy for power production, transportation, cement and steel production, agriculture, and home/building heating).
This paper is dedicated to the memory of Kenneth J. Klabunde, Robert M. Brown, Jr., Ron Reinsfelder, and Jerry Gerardot (deceased friends, colleagues, and donors). We acknowledge valued assistance from Don Setser, John Wickham, Bill Polkinghorn, Doug Webb, Satyajit Kar, James Welch, Greg & Ben Fry, Wayne Branagh, and Judy Gerardot. CRT certifies no conflict-of-interest.
This concept was presented, in part, at 6th International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts & Responses, Reykjavik, Iceland (2014) and conference journal issues (2015, 2016). Outgassing was underestimated in those reports and choosing EHUX for the primary carbon capture & export role wasn’t auspicious. EHUX calcification releases ~0.3 mole-fraction of CO2 (per mole of CaCO3 produced in pelagic waters—which is ~0.15 mole-fraction of total EHUX-captured carbon—about a 15% loss). Overall, EHUX could still offer ~85% of the MLLO3 unit-capture capacity of diatoms, but wouldn’t have an efficient aggregation (deep-sea export) mechanism for EHUX’ organic carbon. Extensive flocculation would be needed for effective (post-coccolith-shedding) EHUX organic carbon export. Neither flocculation, nor diatoms, nor temperature considerations, nor local artificial upwelling (LAU) of nutrient-rich deep seawater (DSW), nor Redfield-balanced-nutrition (DOC-suppression), nor CCS NH4NO3, nor ANFN NO3-, nor DAB/TEP-induced aggregate export, nor UICs, nor UIC mitigation were invoked in those early concept reports. Those deficiencies are corrected in this Earth2040 series (e.g., this paper #2 (OACC-MES)), with diatoms and late-stage TEP exopolymer-coated aggregation replacing EHUX in the lead role of primary carbon capture & export. We have reassigned EHUX’ primary function to ocean amplified solar reflection (OASR)10 and whole-earth cooling in three different contributing roles as part of multi-tiered SRM albedo modification (see Earth2040 paper #1)10. In that case, amplified reflective-white EHUX and its exceptional ability to release dimethyl-sulfide (DMS, nature’s primary cloud-seeding agent) could help cool Earth to its pre-industrial temperature (∆TGLOBAL = 0°C) by 2040.Climate Restoratopm (CRT) maintains all rights reserved for all materials & statements reported above.
Climate Restoration Technologies (CRT) maintains all rights reserved for all materials & statements reported above.”
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Our apologies for not reproducing the figures and tables. The article is under constructtion, so we anticipate adding those features later.
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We also offer a second article from C limate R estoration T echnologies:
“Whole-Earth Cooling Increment via Ocean Amplified Solar Reflection (OASR)
. . . part of a multi-tiered approach to Solar Radiation Management (SRM)
Taken alone, a combination of 34% – 90% emission cuts and CO2 drawdown at 3 – 10 GtC/yr may not be able to restore pre-industrial temperature (∆T = 0°C) until the late 22nd or even 23rd century10. Vulnerable polar ice can’t wait that long2-9b. ∆TGLOBAL = 0°C is required by ~2040 as a foundation for enabling summer polar super-cooling (SPSC with ∆TPOLAR < 0°C (e.g., -1°C to -1.8°C)) to successfully refreeze polar ice21. Rapid global cooling is needed in advance of major emissions cuts and CO2 removal. Near-term climate suffering must also be relieved, and tipping levels for a variety of impending catastrophic impacts must be defused5-7. Otherwise, humanity risks spectacular late-century Eemian-magnitude polar ice sheet collapse with multi-meter sea rise5-7, centuries of Eemian-magnitude super-storms7, and release of ≥ 4 to ≥ 90 Gt of CH4 currently trapped under polar ice8,9a-b.
U.N., IPCC, IEA, Paris Agreement, and COP26 (Glasgow, 2021) aspire to cap global warming at +1.5°C. However, those plans rely too heavily on stringent emissions targets alone, requiring 50% cuts by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 205028,29. The 2030 target won’t likely be met, and none of the plans have inspired emissions cutting pledges (NDCs) that could enable a +1.5°C warming cap1. NDCs received prior to COP26 were Climate-Action-Tracker (CAT) projected to yield +2.1°C to +2.4°C warming1. Glasgow NDCs portend ∆TGLOBAL ≥ +1.8°C1.
NDC pledges historically become empty promises which aren’t kept28. Paris NDCs included promises of emissions cuts and $100 billion annual aid from wealthy nations to poorer nations to help them meet emissions targets and mitigate warming impacts. Neither pledged emissions cuts nor promised financial aid to poorer nations were ever met or delivered28. National and international climate agencies have thoroughly characterized climate change and understood its causes, but are failing to identify or pursue high-impact solutions. They also greatly underestimate risks. Humanity isn’t much closer to capping or reversing warming, stabilizing polar ice, or restoring ocean alkalinity than they were in Paris or Kyoto. All problem fronts are still accelerating and tipping levels for catastrophic impacts are looming larger than ever. Instead of capping warming at +1.5°C, IPCC and CAT projections in Fig. 1 suggest the +1.5°C global warming level will arrive by 2040 and +1.8°C by 20551,30. That’s the most favorable scenario, in which COP26 NDCs are met in full. With even modest failure, +1.9°C arrives by 2060, +2.1°C by 2070, and +2.4°C by 20801,30. With post-Kyoto/Paris history as an indicator, Glasgow NDCs also may not be met, and warming could rise to +2.7°C or higher by 21001. (See Figs. 1 and 2.)
A +1.5°C cap won’t defuse impending collapse of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) or a resultant 10 ft sea level rise2-4, and that cap cannot be met by emission cuts alone1. Even a +1.8°C cap requires full implementation of COP26 NDCs—an unlikely event because of inertia, procrastination, denial, and resistance to climate taxes.
Fig. 1 shows Earth ∆TGLOBAL extrapolated from an IPCC historical plot30 and CAT modeling of ∆T from Paris and Glasgow NDCs1. The solid blue plot segment from 1950 – 2017 is IPCC data, with shading to indicate historical uncertainty30. Today’s ∆TGLOBAL = +1.2°C (2022)1. The dotted black segment is IPCC extrapolation showing ∆TGLOBAL reaching +1.5°C by 204030. Capping warming at +1.5°C would require unrealistic 50% global emissions cuts by 2030 and net zero emissions by 205028,29. Reality will more likely track Fig. 1’s dotted-red extrapolation leading to ∆TGLOBAL = +1.8°C by 20551, and that requires full implementation of all COP26 targets and NDCs1.
CAT modeling shows a COP26 ΔT cap of +1.5°C is unrealistic. (It is also dangerously lax.)
The 2021 Climate-Action-Tracker (CAT) modeled “ambition gap” 1 (regarding a +1.5°C warming cap)
Eemian Period Impacts from Milankovitch Earth orbital drift (slightly nearer to the sun c.a. 128,000 years ago)
After decades of polar ice melting with gradual sea rise, 1.9°C of Eemian warming led to weakening and sudden spectacular mechanical collapse of several polar ice sheets5-7. Massive segments slid abruptly into oceans bordering Greenland and Antarctica, accompanied by 30 ft of permanent sea rise within ~10 years5-7. The high seas lasted thousands of years. Eemian warming also triggered an era of superstorms7, far worse than any storms known since then. Those ice sheets reformed as sea levels fell during the last ice age. Sea levels returned to normal during the Holocene, until late 1980s when gradual polar ice-melting resumed . . . this time because of GHG warming. Vulnerable sections of the same ice sheets are poised again for spectacular mechanical collapse in late 21st or 22nd century, likely raising seas by at least 10 ft (if warming persists at 1.2°C 2-4). Seas could rise higher yet if warming reaches 1.5°C to 2°C. Permanent sea level could rise 50 ft (15 meters) if warming reaches CAT-projections of 2.5 to 2.9°C (see “Policies & action” range of Fig. 2).
The Albedo Modification Premise
In 2008, Hansen et al 27 reported “climate sensitivity” to be 0.75°C/W/m2. CAT warming projections of +1.8°C therefore correspond to +1.8°C/0.75°C/W/m2 = +2.4 W/m2 of radiation imbalance in the warming direction by 2055, with +2.0 W/m2 in 2040. In 2021, Raghuraman and Paynter35 reported warming is increasing by +0.38 W/m2 per decade. With 6.5 warming decades occurring between 1990 and 2055, the total extent of planetary radiation imbalance thru 2055 may be estimated at 6.5 x ~0.38W/m2 = +2.5 W/m2, resulting in ∆T = +1.8°C of excess warming. This agrees with our +2.4 W/m2 projection from Hansen et al climate sensitivity27.
Planetary albedo is the extent to which Earth reflects incident sunlight back to outer space. To restore preindustrial temperature (∆TGLOBAL = 0°C), -2.0 W/m2 of net albedo cooling would hypothetically be required by 2040 and -2.4 to -2.5 W/m2 of net cooling by 2055. This early solar radiation management (SRM) solution should be independent of emissions cuts and CO2 removal. SRM could be accomplished much faster & less expensively.
A Stratospheric Aerosol Solution
Major volcanic eruptions (e.g., Pinatubo) created stratospheric ash clouds that cooled Earth by -0.4°C for 2 years36. Edward Teller12a and Paul Crutzen12b suggested artificially increasing stratospheric aerosol. David Keith proposed injecting sulfuric acid mist into the stratosphere from business jets modified for flight at 60,000 – 75,000 feet13. This could potentially triple Pinatubo aerosol impact to achieve -1.2°C of cooling. As CO2 continues rising and thermal lag catches up, more aerosol may be required13. Aerosols would require replenishing. Keith is concerned about UICs13. He suggests safer aerosols (e.g., CaCO3) could replace sulfuric acid. We concur.
Tropospheric Aerosols: Marine Cloud-brightening and Iron Salt Aerosol (ISA) solutions. Marine cloud-brightening (MCB) by misting nebulized seawater into existing ocean cloud cover could increase cloud albedo37. Oeste et al suggest tropospheric iron-salt aerosol (ISA) to scatter a fraction of incident sunlight back to outer space38. MCB and ISA could boost Earth’s albedo without damaging the ozone layer. They could also be localized, avoiding regions prone to adverse monsoon impact. Oeste et al also suggest ISA offers prospects for atmospheric CH4 removal38. Oeste et al finally envision ISA fallout-iron fertilizing ocean algal blooms38 to capture CO2. Although nearly 40 years of repeated attempts at ocean iron fertilization (OIF) failed to consistently export captured CO2 to the HLFO deep seafloor39.41, ISA and MCB still remain excellent multi-tiered SRM candidates.
Down-to-Earth (plus outer space) Solar Radiation Management (SRM) options. Former Energy Secretary Stephen Chu identified an option to paint roofs and pavements white (or light-gray) to reflect more sunlight back to outer space. This could offer the cooling equivalent of removing all cars from the Earth for 50 years16-18. Ye Tao (Harvard University) advocates 10% of crop-land conversion to mirror arrays (MEER—Mirrors for Earth’s Energy Rebalance) as a viable reflective option19. A Lagrange space shield could be yet another viable reflector44.
I. A New Albedo Option: Ocean Amplified Solar Reflection (OASR) via EHUX blooming.
Emiliania huxleyi (EHUX) are microscopic ocean algae that build exterior coccospheres comprising tiny open-spoked reflective white calcium carbonate (CaCO3) coccolith disks (Fig 3). According to Tyrrell et al (1999), EHUX natural bright-blooming occurs once annually over ~0.3% of Earth’s surface and accounts for ~0.0003% of global albedo14. That 1999 tally didn’t include albedo contribution from the Great Calcite Belt (discovered by Balch et al (2011, 2016)14a,b). Individual exterior coccolith disks are 1 – 2 μm diameter, with an inner hub depression like some wheels, ~30 nm diameter CaCO3 “spokes”, and a thin ~30 nm outer rim. Often, two disks are hub-attached like a double-carousel. The interior of the one-celled organism photosynthetically produces organic carbon. Coccolithogenesis, a light-driven process, forms xcoccoliths in the one-celled organism’s interior and abruptly pops them out through the cell membrane about once every 1 – 2h. EHUX are unique among coccolithophores in shedding individual coccoliths, which scatter much of the bloom-reflected sunlight seen by satellites (Fig. 4). Blooms last 7 – 20 days.
Fig. 4 shows a rare natural EHUX surface bloom strongly reflecting incident sunlight back to outer space. Bluish-white color signifies blooming near the ocean surface. The closer a bloom is to the surface, the brighter it appears. Natural blooms occur at varied depth according to nutrient depth profiles. Most are considerably “dimmer” than this rare surface bloom. EHUX bloom only sporadically in nature. In Tyrrell et al’s report (1999) bright blooms accounted for ~0.0003% of planetary albedo14. That’s a tiny fraction of albedo required for whole earth cooling, but it was from only 1 month/yr of “depth-dimmed” EHUX blooming and only ~0.3% of Earth’s surface. OASR could enable a 1/5th to 1/10th scale SRM option, if EHUX bright blooms could be blooms could be
OASR could seed and fertilize 20-day monthly EHUX surface blooms in 24% of the mid-to-low-latitude oligotrophic open-ocean (MLLO3) area from 40°N – 40°S latitude, yielding ~0.23% more Earth albedo, a -0.4 W/m2 whole-earth cooling vector, and a -0.3°C reduction in Earth’s temperature. That could be 1/6th of a -2.4 W/m2 (-1.8°C) multi-tiered SRM cooling composite.
II. EHUX blooming area needed for a -2.4 W/m2global cooling vector
Determine whether it’s possible to get 1.4% more Earth albedo, a -2.4 W/m2 cooling vector, and -1.8°C reduction in global temperature from EHUX-based OASR bloom albedo alone. (Spoiler alert: The answer is “NOT LIKELY”.)
TABLE 2 — Input Data
• Tyrrell et al (1999)14: 0.3% of Earth’s area enabled 0.0003% EHUX bright-bloom albedo (excluding GCB14a,b)
. . . but that’s from only 1 month of sporadic bright blooming each year. (It was also “depth-dimmed”.)
• Tyrrell et al (1999)14: Low-level PIC background (60°N – 60°S latitude) enabled 0.13% albedo (= -0.22 W/m2)
. . . estimated for a nominally continuous (12 month per year) global PIC background albedo contribution
• Hansen et al (2008)27: “Climate sensitivity” = 0.75°C/W/m2
• CAT-modeled warming cap from COP26 NDCs = +1.8°C (see Figs. 1 – 2), assuming full implementation of NDCs
• Total ocean area = ~70% of Earth’s area
• Subtropical oligotrophic ocean gyres (suitable for OASR operations) = ~40% of Earth’s area
TABLE 3 — Calculations and Realization of a Fundamental Limit
• From CAT-modeled warming (COP26 NDC basis) & Fig. 1, whole-earth cooling requires -1.8°C offset by 2055
• From Hansen et al climate sensitivity27, -1.8°C offset proportionally requires a -2.4 W/m2 cooling vector
• From Tyrrell et al PIC background data14, a -2.4 W/m2 cooling vector requires 1.4% more Earth albedo
• From Tyrrell et al14, 1999 bright-bloom albedo was ~0.0003% albedo / 0.3% earth-area for 1 month in each year
• OASR could enable 12 months of bright blooming in each year
• 12 x 0.0003% albedo / 0.3% earth-area = 0.0036% albedo / 0.3% earth-area for 1 year of monthly OASR bright blooming
• ~2x more brightness may be enabled by OASR surface blooms replacing natural “depth dimming”
• 2 x 0.0036% albedo / 0.3% earth-area = 0.0072% albedo / 0.3% earth-area for 12 OASR surface blooms / year
• Proportion: A% earth-area 0.3% earth-area
1.4% albedo 0.0072% albedo
• Fundamental Limit: “A” exceeds available area of subtropical ocean gyres (≤ 40% earth-area is suitable for OASR)
Earth doesn’t have enough oligotrophic ocean space for OASR alone to provide -2.4 W/m2 cooling.
At least half of subtropical oligotrophic ocean gyres will need to be reserved for high-impact OACC-MES CDR10, which only leaves ≤ 20% earth-area available for OASR. That means OASR alone cannot enable 1.4% albedo and the -1.8°C temperature offset required for whole-earth cooling and restoration of ∆T = 0°C by 2040 – 2055.
III. EHUX-based OASR as 1/3rd – 1/10th contributor (to multi-tiered solar radiation management)
OASR could make a 1/3rd to 1/10th contribution toward whole-earth cooling. (Note: We use 1/6th contribution as an example in this paper.) Instead of -2.4 W/m2 cooling vector, 1.4% albedo contribution, and -1.8°C temperature offset by 2055, OASR could realistically contribute -0.4 W/m2 cooling vector, 0.233% albedo increment, and -0.3°C temperature offset, which amounts to a 1/6th fraction of required whole-earth cooling by 2055. Alternatively, those numbers could conceivably be doubled to raise the OASR contribution to 1/3rd (-0.6°C) of the required -1.8°C whole-earth cooling by 2055. For a 1/6th contribution by 2040, OASR increments could be -0.33 W/m2, 0.2% albedo, and -0.26°C—and double those values for a 1/3rd contribution. The 1/6th option seems most reasonable, but a 1/3rd option could conceivably be managed in case of dire need.
IV. Weight of EHUX-based OASR to enable 1/6th scale (-0.4 W/m2) global cooling vector
TABLE 4 — More Input Data
• Balch et al (2016): Global PIC = 0.4 – 1.8 GtPIC/yr (a range including multiple studies)
. . . mid-point of reported global PIC range = ~1.1 GtPIC/yr
• Balch et al (2016): The Great Calcite Belt (GCB, 38 – 60°S latitude) accounts for 26% of global PIC
• Tyrrell et al (1999): 0.13% albedo = -0.22 W/m2 from “global” PIC [excluding GCB (discovered later (2011)]
• Fraction of Balch et al cited global PIC counted in Tyrrell (1999) report [excluding GCB] . . = 74%
• Approx. PIC counted in Tyrrell (1999) “global” PIC albedo (0.13%): . . . . 0.74 x 1.1 GtPIC/yr = 0.814 GtPIC/yr
• Estimate of EHUX total carbon (ETC = EHUXPIC + EHUXPOC) giving rise to EHUXPIC . . . . . . . . . = 2.33 GtETC/GtPIC
• From Section II: Whole-earth cooling requires -1.8°C offset, -2.4 W/m2 cooling vector . . . = 1.4% albedo
TABLE 5 — Final Calculations for fractional OASR SRM cooling
• 1/6th OASR SRM: -1.8°C/6 = -0.3°C offset, -2.4 W/m2/6 = -0.4 W/m2 cooling vector, 1.4%/6 = 0.233% albedo
• 1/3rd OASR SRM (in case of dire need): -0.6°C offset, -0.8 W/m2 cooling vector, . . . . . . . . . . = 0.47% albedo
• EHUX total carbon (ETC) for 1999 Tyrrell et al calibration: . . . 0.814 GtPIC x 2.33 GtETC/GtPIC = 1.9 GtETC/yr
• “Depth-dimmed” EHUX for 1/6th OASR SRM: . . . . . . (0.233%albedo/0.13%albedo) x 1.9 GtETC/yr = 3.4 GtETC/yr
• “Surface brightened” EHUX for 1/6th OASR SRM: 3.4 GtETC/yr ÷ 2 (surface-brightness factor) = 1.7 GtETC/yr
V. Pulse modulated EHUX bright blooming
VI. The OASR Engine: Blooming 1.7 GtC/yr of EHUX on demand
TABLE 6 — EHUX Bloom Amplification Origins (combined factors) plus an SMR OASR energy source
• Nutrient-poor MLLO3 waters (40°N – 40°S latitude): vast oligotrophic ocean “deserts” which have sparse xxpopulations of limiters (competing algae, viruses, & grazers)39 allowing interference-free OASR EHUX blooming.
• LCO2-accelerated nursery EHUX seed-production to enable secondarily amplified open-sea MLLO3 EHUX blooming.
• Secondarily seeding nursery EHUX plus nutrients to trigger exponential open-sea MLLO3 EHUX blooming on Day-1.
• Exponential open-sea EHUX blooming consistently overwhelms sparse MLLO3 limiters on Day-1.
• Depletion of surface-dosed nutrients by Day-23, enabling short-bloom cycles and 12 bright surface blooms/yr.
• Monthly oligotrophic reset to prevent new-growth limiters from “catching up” or exceeding sparse pre-bloom
populations over the course of each year.
• Post-bloom lithogenic flocculants optionally enabling accelerated (and robust) oligotrophic reset (see Fig. 6).
• Pulse modulation enabling intense short-cycle blooms, monthly oligotrophic reset, and consistent EHUX blooming.
• Micro-nuclear energy (small modular reactors (SMRs)22-24) cleanly enabling energy-intensive OASR operations.
Nursery EHUX Seed Production. Seed production could occur in fleets of self-propelled marine nursery bioreactor drones with sealed headspaces infused with diluted boil-off from liquid CO2 (LCO2). LCO2 would be captured from inland CCS fossil energy and CCS NH4NO3 production. LCO2 & NH4NO3 would ship to open-ocean nursery drones. Dilute Ca(OH)2 could be added to bioreactor media to provide Ca++ and neutralize LCO2-induced acidity. Bioreactor headspaces could be ~0.1 – 1% in CO2, which should accelerate EHUX seed production relative to secondary open-sea blooming. Nursery bioreactors may require virus-free DSW raised from 400-meter depth, with filtering, electrolytic Cl2 disinfection, and thiosulfate neutralization of excess Cl2. That is needed for semi-continuous seed production. Concentrated seed harvest would be dosed into MLLO3 bloom zones, along with surface-dosed NH4NO3, trace thiamine (Vitamin-B1), and mineral nutrients. The surface-dosing of EHUX seed, and all essential nutrients on Day-1 could bypass inertial lag-phase otherwise experienced with natural blooming and immediately vault secondary open-ocean blooms to their exponential growth threshold (A*) on Day-1. Exponential growth (A* in Fig. 6) could overwhelm sparse populations of MLLO3 viruses, grazers, and competing algae. The OASR bloom cycle would be shorter than natural EHUX cycles, as a result of bypassing the inertial lag phase and truncating new-growth limiters with flocculant-accelerated oligotrophic reset.
Oligotrophic Reset. Fig. 6 shows new-growth limiters (viruses & grazers) increasing in response to OASR blooms. If limiters aren’t checked, they could accumulate and block Day-1 exponential growth, which could prevent further blooming by transforming MLLO3 waters from oligotrophic to mesotrophic surface ecology with only sporadic EHUX blooming. This can be avoided by not seeding or fertilizing MLLO3 bloom spaces again until full oligotrophic reset (to pre-bloom conditions) occurs. With EHUX blooms becoming nutrient depleted by Day-23, adding lithogenic particles or silica-gel flocculant could shorten post-bloom oligotrophic reset to ~4 days (Fig. 6). A second bloom wouldn’t be seeded into a target space or fertilized until new-growth limiters have been reset to the original sparse oligotrophic condition. (Full reset should be confirmed before the next cycle begins.)
VII. Micro-nuclear Energy (SMRs)22-24: power to enable several SRM cooling tiers
Four EHUX-based solar radiation management (SRM) tiers (including OASR) + OACC-MES10 are vital to timely climate and ocean restoration. They have energy-intensive steps that can’t rely on renewable energy, and most can’t cleanly rely on fossil energy. Examples: CCS NH4NO3 production, nursery disinfection, drone propulsion, illumination, and battery recharging + DSW pumps & NPFE evaporators for flocculant (silica-gel) and OACC-MES nutrient preparation (from nutrient-rich DSW)10. Small modular ocean-going micro-nuclear SMRs22-24 will suffice.
Pulse-modulation and amplification
Because of A* (Day-1) exponential growth and post-bloom flocculation with lithogenic particles, Fig. 6 open-ocean EHUX bloom-and-reset cycles could be short. With monthly nursery reseeding & surface re-fertilizing . . . intense, short-cycle, pulse-modulated OASR surface blooms could consistently occur 12 times per year. Amplified annual EHUX blooming and albedo could result across vast MLLO3 areas. This path may enable Fig. 5.
MLLO3 nitrate surface fertilizer & OASR EHUX bloom rotation (with OACC-MES diatoms10) for H2PO4-
EHUX can uniquely thrive in “phosphate-depleted” waters. They often appear in the wake of diatom blooms. For MLLO3 diatom CDR (OACC-MES10), local artificially upwelling (LAU) DSW10 could provide Si(OH)4, H2PO4-, and Fe, while surface fertilizing adds nitrate and trace B-vitamins. If monthly blooming is rotated (alternating between diatom CDR and EHUX OASR in adjacent MLLO3 bloom spaces, with LAU occurring only on the diatom cycle), EHUX will get enough H2PO4- . . . left-over from the most recent diatom cycle. Nitrate plus extra Fe and trace B-vitamins would be surface-dosed on both cycles. For 1.7 GtC/yr of EHUX bright blooming, surface-dosing 0.43 GtNH4NO3/yr could be shipments from inland CCS manufacturing. Phosphate-depletion following each diatom CDR cycle10 should leave enough H2PO4- for EHUX OASR, but not enough for competing algae. Following EHUX OASR, H2PO4- could be replenished on the next LAU-DSW upwelling cycle (during the diatom CDR10 rotation).
Ocean Alkalinity note: Nitrogen surface fertilization will have to start in the 2030s with inland CCS manufacturing of NH4NO3. Adding the CCS process to fertilizer manufacturing will generate another LCO2 source. Along with NH4NO3, LCO2 can be shipped to nursery bioreactor drones for infusing sealed bioreactor headspaces with elevated CO2. However, at the earliest opportunity, it may be desirable to substitute up to 0.66 GtNO3-/yr (or a fraction thereof) of ANFN NO3- (see below) for part of the open-ocean CCS 0.43 GtNH4NO3/yr. That’s because fertilizing with ANFN nitrate releases ~16x more OH- (during EHUX photosynthesis) than NH4NO3. ANFN OH- release could help restore ocean alkalinity sooner than decarbonation by high-impact CDR alone.
An alkalinity-promoting NO3- source will eventually be needed for both OASR and OACC-MES10. The answer may be N2-fixing via the trichodesmium-(cyanobacteria)/oxidizing-archaea/nitrite-oxidizing-bacteria (NOB) path. Trichodesmium is present in MLLO3, but mostly dormant owing to Fe and Mo limitation. Fe and Mo are required nitrogenase enzyme cofactors. Fe/Mo surface dosing could activate trichodesmium. A preferred OASR option could include ANFN (amplified trichodesmium/archaea/nitrite-oxidizing-bacterial NO3- production) in separate, dedicated, Fe/Mo dosed, beneficial-bacteria bioreactors that release only filtered NO3- into MLLO3 open oceans. This could coincide with EHUX seeding. In that case, we’d also need to include oxidizing archaea and nitrite oxidizing bacteria (NOB), plus their enzyme cofactor metal ions in the ANFN bioreactors. To preserve limiter sparsity, only filtered NO3- should be released to MLLO3.
Amplified nitrogen fixing & nitrification (ANFN) bioreactors could provide alkalinity-promoting NO3- to replace part of the CCS NH4NO3. However, ANFN bioreactors will require longer development, so OASR must start with CCS NH4NO3. Switching part of the nutrient to ANFN bioreactor alkaline NO3- could release up to 16x more OH- (during EHUX photosynthesis) than NH4NO3, so ANFN should be expedited to speed ocean alkalinity restoration.
Multiple roving nursery bioreactor (marine) drones could extend target bloom spaces. Large fleets of semi-continuous, fast-blooming, nursery bioreactor drones could seed much larger amplified secondary MLLO3 OASR EHUX blooms. Drones could be storm-submersible, self-propelled, self-illuminating, and micro-nuclear powered (SMR). Alternatively, they could be battery-powered with recharging at rendezvous sites with larger, roving, regional micro-nuclear SMR power-drone stations. Ocean and land-based infrastructure of nutrient production, tankers, bioreactors, and other systems required for OASR will be described separately.
IX. Multi-tiered solar radiation management (SRM) approach to whole-earth cooling
Limits of scale, fertilizer, cost, unintended consequence (UIC), and the need to reserve at least half of suitable MLLO3 bloom space (40°N – 40°S latitude*) for high-impact diatom-based OACC-MES CO2 removal (CDR)10 may mean that EHUX-based OASR should be limited to a 1/6th whole-earth cooling contribution. The other 5/6ths will likely need to come from five or more other SRM sources. If dire need arises, which other SRMs simply cannot meet, OASR could conceivably be expanded to a 1/3rd contribution . . . at 2x more cost and exaggerated UIC risk.
Cooling at every viable stratum is suggested for increasing Earth’s albedo 1.2% by 2040 and 1.4% by 2055, until CO2 drawdown targets are met. We think whole-earth cooling is best approached via multi-tiered solar radiation management (SRM). Multi-tiering involving different SRMs is vital to avoid shortages of critical resources, maximize synergies, distribute performance and scale burdens, share cost, avoid risking too many “eggs” in any one SRM “basket”, and to dilute SRM unintended consequence (UIC) risks. Multi-tiering 6 SRMs (with individual deployments at only ~1/6th scale) could dilute composite UIC risk and lower critical resource demands.
X. UIC Risk dilution via multi-tiered albedo modification with decoupled thresholds
Although certain SRMs could individually scale to raise planetary albedo by 1.2% – 1.4%, adverse unintended consequences (UICs) may arise in the extreme with fully scaled solo operations involving a single SRM. To further complicate matters, many individual UIC threats may be currently unknown. We therefore think it wise to take precautionary measures that could “dilute” composite UIC risk. A novel approach to broad-spectrum risk dilution is proposed, based on the likelihood that UICs occurring in response to emergency high-impact SRMs such as OASR or stratospheric aerosol injection could have nonlinear UIC response functions involving key thresholds, . . . below which UICs may be undetectable or yield only minor manifestations that could be mitigated.
It is conceivable that threshold crossings would precede strongly manifesting UICs and rapidly escalating consequences. We envision substantial benefit potential in scaling back individual albedo modification (SRM) deployments to levels below key individual UIC thresholds. Multi-tiered SRM composite UIC risk could thereby be diluted substantially more than 6x by sharing the burden of 1.2% – 1.4% planetary albedo increase among 6 widely different SRM approaches, each scaled back nominally 6x and deployed at different altitudes.
The premise: Individual SRM UIC thresholds may be unrelated & decoupled from one another. This multi-tiered risk dilution approach could hypothetically reduce probability (by substantially more than 6x) of crossing each method’s separate consequence threshold, while beneficial impact of the multi-tiered whole still sums to 1.4% planetary albedo rise. It’s even conceivable that sharing the albedo burden among multiple and widely differing scaled-back SRMs at different altitudes could result in none of the individual UIC thresholds being crossed.
XI. Four proposed tiers of risk-diluted EHUX-based SRM albedo modification
SRM Tier-1. EHUX-based OASR open-ocean white surface-bloom albedo
For > 6x UIC risk dilution, Figs 1 and 5 (combined) suggest EHUX surface-bloom OASR could scale to yield a 0.2% rise in planetary albedo, a -0.33 W/m2 cooling vector, and a temperature offset of -0.26°C . . . reducing global ∆T from +1.5°C to +1.24°C in 2040. By 2055, OASR albedo could be 0.233%, and ΔT could drop from +1.8°C to +1.5°C (a -0.3°C offset). This 6x downscaling of Section-II EHUX-based OASR Tier-1 SRM (as in Figs 5, 6, and 7b) could dilute adverse OASR UICs more than 6x, possibly diluting some of them below UIC appearance thresholds.
Note: While EHUX are the most reflective marine entities that bloom in the ocean, they induce some lateral light scattering which locally warms photic zones14. However, this is minor compared to EHUX’ overriding impact of reflecting incident sunlight to outer space and cooling ocean water beneath the blooms . . . especially with EHUX-released DMS subsequently inducing cloud albedo which adds to EHUX’ white-bloom albedo.
SRM Tier-2. Dimethyl-sulfide (DMS) cloud-seeding to increase ocean cloud-cover and tropospheric albedo
Tier-2 EHUX-based tropospheric cloud albedo enhancement would automatically arise from seeding Tier-1 OASR-amplified open-ocean white EHUX surface blooms. As OASR-induced Tier-1 EHUX blooms die, they will release a similarly amplified amount of volatile dimethyl-sulfide (DMS). It evaporates and rises to several thousand feet of altitude. It is readily oxidized by hydroxyl radicals during the day and nitrate radicals at night. DMS oxidation products are nature’s primary oceanic cloud-seeding agents. That could increase the geographic spread and % time that MLLO3 open oceans spend under cloud cover . . . which shades and cools oceans.
Increased cloud albedo could reflect 0.2 to 0.233% more sunlight back to space. A combination of Tier-1 & Tier-2 albedo modification could produce 0.4 to 0.47% albedo, -0.66 to -0.8 W/m2 composite cooling vector, and temperature offset of -0.52°C to -0.6° by 2040 to 2055, reducing global ΔT from +1.5°C to +0.98°C by 2040 and from +1.8°C to +1.2°C (today’s temperature) in 2055 . . . reversing 33 years of new warming (from 2022 – 2055)).
SRM Tier-3. Second-stage copepod or krill bioreactor-amplified grazer-attack induction of DMS release
Tier-3 would also be EHUX-based, but involve neither OASR nor open-sea blooming. It would feature independent two-stage DMS production in pairs of adjacent separate bioreactors to more efficiently seed cloud cover, solely from bioreactor DMS (completely independent of open-sea OASR). It capitalizes on EHUX’ known response of releasing 4 to 5x more DMS when eaten by grazers (e.g., copepods or krill) than if their demise occurs via starvation or viral infection. When occurring by transferring bioreactor EHUX to a second set of sealed grazer-attack bioreactors, EHUX’ demise and extra 4 to 5x DMS release could be considered an amplifier, in cases where the goal is high efficiency DMS production and amplified DMS-induced cloud seeding.
For this Tier-3 EHUX spinoff SRM technology, EHUX would be only bioreactor-bloomed using the same LCO2-accelerated bioreactor tactics as OASR. The difference is that the Tier-3 goal is not EHUX seed production. Instead, these EHUX could be allowed to shed coccoliths within the bioreactor (in one option). In that case, shed coccoliths would be transferred to Tier 4 (below). Remaining “naked” EHUX could be transferred to a 2nd set of adjacent bioreactors containing live colonies of krill or zooplankton (ZP) grazers (e.g. copepods). In another option, EHUX could be transferred to ZP bioreactors without shedding coccoliths. Either way, krill or ZP copepods will eat EHUX, with grazer attack causing them to release 4 to 5x more bioreactor DMS than normal.
Volatile DMS will gather in sealed headspaces of the grazer-attack bioreactors. The DMS may be condensed and separately stored as liquid DMS (LDMS). LDMS is ideal for shipping to remote locations anywhere in the world (either at sea (or inland)). LDMS may be released when and where local cloud seeding is desired. The only limitation to cloud seeding from remote LDMS release would be . . . at least some humidity is required for DMS oxidation products to be successful in cloud seeding. That condition would apply in any oceanic environment . . . generating cloud albedo as LDMS volatilizes, rises to altitude, and oxidizes to yield nature’s primary cloud-seeding agents. An important secondary benefit for inland LDMS release could be rain for agriculture.
Given the 4 – 5x amplification factor of DMS release by EHUX as they are eaten by grazers, it may be feasible to scale this bioreactor operation to yield a 1/6th whole-earth cooling increment yielding SRM Tier-3 . . . with yet another 0.233% cloud albedo modification, -0.4 W/m2 cooling vector, and -0.3°C global temperature offset. That could raise the 3-tier composite total to 0.7% albedo, -1.2 W/m2 cooling vector, and -0.9°C global offset by 2055.
Tier-3 beneficial byproducts: The shed EHUX coccoliths from bioreactor #1 could be utilized by Tier 4 (below). The byproduct of bioreactor #2 would be new grazer growth. New-growth bioreactor grazers could be subdivided into multiple colonies for expanding the Tier-3 operation—preparing more #2 grazer-attack bioreactors for processing EHUX into amplified DMS production and liquefaction. When the maximum desired number of global EHUX bioreactor #1 and grazer-attack (bioreactor #2) modules (plus maximal LDMS productivity) has been reached, a 3rd set of adjacent bioreactors may be added . . . in which brine shrimp, anchovies, sardines, herring, etc. are grown by feeding them new-growth grazers from the #2 bioreactors. As these brine shrimp, baitfish, etc. reach maturity, they (in turn) may be fed into a 4th set of adjacent tanks containing a variety of desirable young fish (e.g. young salmon, cod, tuna, etc.) which eat, grow larger, and are (later) transferred to netted fish farms. They could continue eating brine shrimp, baitfish, etc., with this Tier-3 byproduct spinoff technology ultimately contributing to high quality global food production. That could be helpful to humanity in meeting the U.N. goal of increasing food production 60% by 2040. It could also reduce commercial wild-capture fishing pressure to help enable natural marine revitalization.
Tier-3 spinoff: LDMS-induced inland cloud cover could bring much-needed drought relief (rain for agriculture) in semi-arid lands. That could increase food production in places like Africa, India, Asia, South America, Mexico, and the Southwestern USA . . . or any other semi-arid regions that could benefit from drought relief.
SRM Tier-4. Stratospheric EHUX Coccolith Aerosol (SECA)
This is a minor variation on David Keith’s stratospheric CaCO3 aerosol SRM concept13. The same modified business jets Keith proposed for airlifting H2SO413 could disperse SECA at 60,000 feet. If initially successful, a larger purpose-built fleet able to reach 75,000 feet13 could be used for larger-scale SECA aerosol dispersal.
The change in aerosol material (from David Keith’s H2SO4 droplet mist (or crystalline CaCO3) to EHUX coccoliths), plus 6x lower deployment scale in a six-tiered SRM composite approach, could offer substantially more than a 6x reduction in UIC risk for Tier-4 solar radiation management, plus considerably reduced material requirement.
Fig 8. Shed coccoliths that could be stratospherically dispersed as SECA aerosol. Coccolith structural elements are reflective white CaCO3. Double-stacked, open-spoked coccolith disks exhibit 1 – 2 µm diameter, 30 nm spoke & rim thickness (Figs. 3, 8), high albedo, and very high surface-area-per-gram. They could enable remarkably efficient SECA light scattering, dramatically reducing material tonnage requirements (compared to earlier stratospheric aerosol proposals13), especially when scaled back 6x in a multi-tiered SRM composite. Open ocean or coastal nursery bioreactors could enable shed coccolith harvesting directly from the nursery, drying, and air-lifting to the stratosphere for SECA dispersal. (Left-over EHUX could be fed to grazer-attack bioreactors #2 (Tier 3)). Tiny, ultra-light SECA double-carousel disks and fragments could remain airborne in the stratosphere and scatter light for up to 2 years in prevailing horizontal winds.
SECA aerosol would require periodic replenishment. Absence of stratospheric rain could prevent airborne coccoliths being washed out of the sky. This greatly diminishes aerosol replenishment requirements. With 5/6ths of the targeted 1.2% – 1.4% whole-earth albedo enhancement being assigned to EHUX Tiers 1 – 3 and 5 plus 6, only 0.233% albedo burden need be assigned to SRM Tier-4 SECA. That’s six times less than the full 1.4% albedo & aerosol tonnage requirements originally envisioned and targeted for stratospheric sulfate-aerosol injection13.
So far, four-tiered SRM composite albedo (summing Tiers 1 – 4) could be 0.932% albedo, corresponding to a cooling vector of -1.6 W/m2 and a -1.2°C global temperature offset. This could reduce +1.8°C of CAT-modeled warming to only +0.6°C in 2055. Remaining whole-earth cooling contributions are reserved for Tiers 5, 6 (below).
XII. Non-EHUX related SRM albedo modification contributions
SRM Tiers 5 & 6. Marine cloud-brightening (MCB)37 and Iron Salt Aerosol (ISA)38 have been described earlier (see page 5). All six tiers are envisioned with each being 6x downscaled (from its full-scale solo whole-earth cooling requirement). Composite six-tiered SRM performance with 6x downscaling of individual SRM tiers, while the composite finally sums to 1.2% – 1.4% extra albedo by 2040 to 2055, . . . could usher in ∆T = 0°C by 2040 (per Fig. 9) with perhaps far less UIC risk overall. A further advantage of risk-dilution offered by multi-tiered albedo modification is a shortening of the safety testing period required for each scaled-back tier, potentially allowing earlier multi-tiered SRM “greenlighting” and deployment (2028 – 2040).
Alternative Non-EHUX SRM Tier options. In the event one or more tiers in the six-tiered composite are unable to deliver a full-quota (0.233% albedo, -0.4W/m2 cooling vector, and -0.3°C global temperature offset for each individual tier), then four additional SRM options could take up the slack or provide extra cooling as needed:
• Cirrus cloud thinning
• 1/5th to 1/10th scale Lagrange space shield44
• White roofs on homes and buildings, plus light-colored pavements16-18
• Ground-based mirrors at 1/5th to 1/10th of the MEER scale envisioned by Ye Tao (Harvard University)19
XIII. Multi-tiered synergies and shared resources
We’ve noted synergy prospects for Tiers 1 and 2. (Dying Tier 1 EHUX blooms would release DMS to seed extra ocean cloud cover with Tier 2 albedo.) There are also shared resources between Tier 1, Tier 3, and OACC-MES10 bioreactors. Regional mobile SMR micro-nuclear power-drones could service battery recharging needs of marine bioreactor drones for all three operations. LCO2 & NH4NO3 shipments would also be shared by bioreactors from the same three operations. Tier 4 could also share synergy with Tier 3 if the first Tier 3 option is taken, in which shed coccoliths from its EHUX bioreactors are harvested and transferred for drying and airlifting to stratosphere for dispersal as SECA aerosol in Tier 4. Tier 4 could also have dedicated EHUX bioreactors from which shed coccoliths may be harvested for SECA aerosol, with left-over EHUX being fed to Tier 3 grazer-attack bioreactors.
A noteworthy synergy may occur between Tiers 2, 3, and 5. Tiers 2 and 3 each could each create extra DMS-induced ocean cloud cover. Rather than “chasing” existing ocean cloud cover, some Tier 5 MCB nebulizer ships could “stand-by” whenever and wherever Tiers 2 and 3 DMS cloud seeding is induced. When Tiers 2 and 3 release DMS to seed extra ocean cloud cover, nearby MCB nebulizer ships could immediately “brighten” that cloud cover by nebulizing seawater aerosol upward, injecting it directly into the new DMS-seeded clouds to brighten them. It’s even possible DMS and MCB seawater aerosol could be co-generated to produce brightened ocean clouds to begin with. Finally, Tier 1 EHUX organic-carbon photosynthesis could capture CO2, reducing OACC-MES’ CO2 removal burden10. (Note: Flocculation could export EHUX’ organic carbon fraction to seafloor.)
XIV. Overall Multi-tiering benefits
Maximizing synergies, resource sharing, distributing albedo demand among 6 to 10 SRM tiers, minimizing critical resource demands, diluting UIC risks, and NOT putting “all eggs” in a single SRM whole-earth cooling basket.
TABLE 7 — Multi-tiered SRM Composite Performance and Benefits
• 1.2% albedo rise by 2040 and 1.4% by 2055 • -2 W/m2 cooling vector by 2040 and -2.4 W/m2 by 2055
• -1.5°C global offset by 2040 and -1.8°C by 2055 • ΔTGLOBAL = 0°C by 2040 and for centuries beyond
• Global warming ends by 2040 • ΔTPOLAR < 0°C by 2040 and several decades beyond
• Polar ice refreezes and polar CH4 stops leaking • Sea level stabilizes
• SRM UIC risks minimized while full benefits accrue • Synergies maximized and critical resources conserved
• Historic economic expansion (millions of new jobs) • Major new natural gas and fertilizer markets
• 2x more energy enabled (low emissions CCS fossil) • Earth2040 project ultimately pays for itself
• Drought relief and rain for agriculture • 60% more food production by 2040
• Buys 1 or 2 centuries for high-impact CO2 removal • Timely, high-impact path to restoring ocean alkalinity
XV. Multi-tiered Albedo Modification Phasing and Deployment schedule
Start early but small with regular re-assessment, culling SRM losers, and re-scaling winners every three years.
Following preliminary testing, limited deployment could begin for multi-tiered SRM by ~2028 and double every three years. Should unacceptable UIC threats arise, all tiers may be scaled back to previous safe levels while scientific testing and analysis identify culprits. The identified UIC culprit (or culprits) could be mitigated, capped, downscaled, or eliminated while remaining tiers are re-scaled or section XII alternate tiers take up the slack. Doubling then continues every three years until 1.2% – 1.4% earth-albedo rise targets are met with acceptable or manageable UIC levels. If UICs remain absent, doubling could occur every three years until ∆T = 0°C is restored. UIC-free tier doubling could be continued until the 1.2% albedo goal is reached by 2040 or sooner. SRMs can progressively scale back as high-impact CDR technologies10 gradually reduce atmospheric CO2.
Fig 9. Five-step multi-tiered SRM phase-in and ∆T impact.
Today’s temperature ( ), COP26 1.5°C target ( ), CAT-modeled COP26 1.8°C NDC reality projection ( ), and Eemian 1.9°C catastrophic impacts threshold ( ) are replotted (and labeled) from CRT’s logo and Fig. 1. A newly computed SRM-capped 1.3°C max warming limit ( ) appears for OASR in 2028. The new five-stepped 1.3°C SRM “exit” path is computed from a six-fold scaled-up (multiplicative) extrapolation of Fig. 5 (region-A: the rising “staircase”) using 0.75°C/W/m2 climate sensitivity27. Fig. 9 shows dramatic post-2028 ∆T cooling impact for multi-tiered SRM composite whole-earth cooling. The Eemian impacts threshold at 1.9°C in 2060 could be hypothetically dodged by taking the (down staircase) SRM “exit” in 2028.
Three benefits of taking the new 1.3°C SRM Exit in Fig. 9
This wholly accessible (and inviting) new 2028 SRM exit could provide a major global warming reprieve. It could also buy humanity an extra century or two for the combination of realistic emissions cuts and high-impact, safe, diatom-based OACC-MES10 (CDR-C option10), and EHUX-based (flocculated organic carbon) CO2 removal to do its work. The Fig. 9 multi-tiered SRM composite would continue albedo modification on a progressively declining basis, in parallel with CDR to maintain ∆TGLOBAL = 0°C until CO2 drawdown targets are finally met and ocean alkalinity can be permanently restored in later centuries10.
1. The Warming Reprieve: A “pearl beyond price”, . . . but by no means a “get-out-of-jail-free card”.
When ∆TGLOBAL = 0°C has been restored in 2040, the “COP26 reality gap” shown in Fig. 9 is of no further concern.
However, atmospheric CO2 must be drawn down to permanently reduce ocean-dissolved CO2 which could otherwise cause catastrophic ocean acidification46. High-impact OACC-MES based CDR must be pursued with photosynthetic CO2 capture and maximal export to seafloor10 (restoring alkalinity via oceanic decarbonation), plus the secondary release of extra OH- ions during photosynthesis (involving ANFN nitrate as part of the fertilizer mix), plus coastal and MLLO3 Ca(OH)2 infusion10 to collectively ensure ocean acidity gets capped during the interval 2040 – 2055 (defusing 6th mass extinction46 and accelerating restoration of ocean alkalinity).
2. Less Stringent NDCs.
With warming reversed by multi-tiered SRM albedo modification and high-impact CDR10 taking effect, NDC values would no longer need to be overly stringent, punishing, or unrealistic. Developing countries could be given extra leeway and time to meet less stringent and more realistic NDCs, while ocean alkalinity restoration is accelerated by OASR EHUX (and OACC-MES diatom) photosynthesis releasing extra OH- (with ANFN NO3- fertilization), and Ca(OH)2 infusion. Eventually, alkalinity would be permanently restored by high-impact CDR10.
3. Relaxed emissions cutting.
It would no longer be necessary to push a “difficult”, “punishing”, and unrealistic target such as 50% emission cuts by 203028,29. Instead, we recommend refocusing on more reasonable, relaxed, and achievable emissions targets, such as 34% emissions cuts by 2050 and 90% by 2075.
XVI. What if the Fig. 1 premise is WRONG? (What if warming vectors exceed +1.8°C?)
What if the Fig. 1 curve starts bending upward? Fig. 1 temperature forecasting is based on linear extrapolation of IPCC historical temperature data, which doesn’t account for potential future acceleration by positive feedback elements that could make the curve nonlinear. Impending factors listed in TABLE 8 (below) could start bending the Fig. 1 curve upward as the century unfolds, causing faster and more substantial warming than IPCC, IEA, COP26, or even CAT-modeling may anticipate. Compounding factors which could exceed Fig. 1 forecasting and produce significantly increased warming vectors (sooner than expected) may include:
TABLE 8 — Extraordinary circumstances not anticipated by current models (or Fig. 1)
• Loss of SO2 pollution and its associated sulfate aerosol cooling as coal-fired power plants are phased outxx,yy.
• Extra loss of SO2/sulfate-aerosol cooling as ocean shipping replaces high-sulfur bunker oil with “cleaner” fuels.
• Thermal lag (“pipeline” warming) may start “catching up”– when compounded with declining SO2 emissions.
• Accelerating loss of natural albedo (e.g. polar ice . . . including seasonal sea-ice loss).
• Failure to meet COP26 NDCs. Historical precedent (Kyoto and Paris) suggests NDCs will NOT likely be met.
• Increased energy demand (e.g. doubling) may compound accelerated warming as the century unfolds.
• India, China, and Mexico appear poised for major economic growth, plus a large middle-class population rise.
• These countries may throw caution “to the wind” . . . raising emissions as economies and middle classes grow.
• Rising emissions in India, China, and Mexico may overwhelm modest emissions cuts made elsewhere.
• Polar ice collapses in Antarctica and the Arctic could abruptly release ≥ 4 to ≥ 90 GtC of underlying methane.
One or more of the above-listed compounding influences could undermine our linearly extrapolated Fig. 1 assumption that -1.8°C of whole-earth cooling by 6-tiered solar radiation management (SRM) will be adequate.
If warming vectors exceed +1.8°C, humanity may be forced to reconsider that -3°C (or more) of whole-earth cooling may be required (instead of the -1.8°C cooling offset by 2055 offered by our 6-tiered SRM approach).
What if warming vectors reach +3°C? In that case, we recommend expanding from 6 tiers in the SRM composite to 10 tiers of SRM whole-earth cooling. Instead of -0.3°C x 6 tiers = -1.8°C of composite cooling, an expanded ten-tiered scenario could enable -0.3°C x 10 tiers = -3°C of composite cooling offset. Sections XI and XII already list 10 tiers, so humanity could simply include all 10 of them, instead of keeping 4 tiers in “reserve”.
What if warming vectors reach +4°C? In that case, re-evaluation may identify (for example) three of the most economical SRMs (out of ten) which also exhibit lowest UIC prospects. Those three SRMs could be scaled up ≥ 2x (each) to increase the 10-tiered SRM total composite cooling offset from -3°C to – 4°C without incurring undue cost or UIC risk. Likely SRM prospects for the three most economical and lowest UIC-risk tiers (for ≥ 2x scaleup (from -0.3°C to -0.63°C, each)) could be: 1.) SECA stratospheric aerosol injection, 2.) white roofs and pavements16-18, and 3.) ground-based mirror arrays (MEER)19. Such a (scaled up) 10-tier SRM composite (7 tiers @ -0.3°C each and 3 economical/lowest-risk tiers @ -0.63°C, each) could yield this – 4°C composite cooling offset.
XVII. Publication Impetus for Multi-tiered Whole-Earth Cooling
Ocean amplified solar reflection (OASR) and multi-tiered albedo modification for risk-diluted whole-earth cooling to ∆T = 0°C by 2040 are unproven theoretical concepts, except for partial proofs existing in nature and natural history. For example, low-level natural EHUX PIC sub-bloom background is reported by Tyrrell et al14 to contribute 0.13% of earth’s albedo with a -0.22W/m2 cooling vector (excluding the GCB, later discovered by Balch, et al 14a,b). Individual explosive volcanic eruptions such as Pinatubo spewing sulfate aerosol high above the earth caused -0.4°C of planetary cooling for two years following eruption36, until the stratosphere finally cleared.
Barring early/dramatic intervention, the window of opportunity to avert near-term tipping levels and prevent warming crises from spiraling beyond control will close by about 2040. OASR and multi-tiered solar radiation management could be one of a few remaining high-impact, fast-acting, and safe intervention options.
We are compelled to offer OASR and multi-tiered solar radiation management (SRM) concepts in advance of further proofs to stimulate urgent discussion among world experts on SMR, SRM, ANFN, and EHUX biology to help generate improvements and identify the range and scope of needed concept proofs. We are also exploring opportunities among private, philanthropic, commercial, and government investors for funding concept proof planning, engineering design, fabrication and testing of bioreactors, laboratory scale proofs, open-ocean concept proofs, and a variety of SMR, SRM, ANFN, and seed production marine bioreactor drone proofs.
XVIII. Summary & Conclusions
We have quantified the need for urgent deployment of ways to forestall runaway global warming. We have proposed novel concepts to increase Earth albedo sufficiently to fully offset legacy GHG-warming by 2040, plus any warming which may manifest thereafter8-9b. We have also proposed novel means of reducing the risk of unintended consequence (UIC) with a multi-tiered approach to increasing Earth albedo by ≥ 1.4%, via deploying multiple, independent, scaled-back SRM technologies at different altitudes, with controlled phase-in.
Limiter-free MLLO3 could enable surface-dosed trace-thiamine and NH4NO3 (or ANFN NO3-) nutrient-selectivity to enable widespread, monthly 2-stage LCO2-driven nursery-accelerated ocean-amplified solar reflection (OASR) via 1.7 GtC/yr of EHUX bright blooming. Energy-intensive OASR steps could be powered by micro-nuclear energy (small modular reactors (SMRs)22-24). Short-cycle, pulse-modulated OASR EHUX blooming could be Tier-1 in a multi-tiered SRM composite that adds -2.0 W/m2 of pulsed Earth-albedo cooling by 2040 and -2.4 W/m2 by 2055. The other 5 to 9 SRM tiers could comprise DMS-induced cloud seeding, bioreactor-amplified grazer-attack DMS production, stratospheric EHUX coccolith aerosol (SECA), marine cloud brightening (MCB)37, iron salt aerosol (ISA)38, cirrus cloud thinning, a Lagrange space shield44, white roofs & pavements16-18, and ground-based mirrors19. If warming vectors exceed +1.8°C, all 10 SRM tiers may be utilized, with three of them doubly deployed for extra cooling. Earth’s preindustrial temperature (∆T = 0°C) could be restored by 2040 & sustained until high-impact CDR10 and 34% – 90% emissions cuts meet CO2 drawdown targets and restore ocean alkalinity.
CRT welcomes constructive critical review, including concept feedback & improvements in OASR & multi-tiered SRM from leading experts in EHUX biology, solar radiation management, micro-nuclear energy, and nitrogen-fixing. To expedite concept proofs, we seek to add experienced world-class collaborators and co-authors in these fields, in order to form partnerships and submit joint funding applications for mutual and global benefit.
Climate Restoration Technologies (CRT) maintains all rights reserved for all materials & statements reported above.”
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Here’s an Abstact from a proposed third paper of theirs:
“Summer Polar Super-cooling (SPSC)
. . . a multi-tiered concept for stabilizing polar ice
Risks with Emissions Cuts Alone
Warming rises beyond 1.8°C ― as a result of unfulfilled COP26 NDCS
Eemian impacts are triggered sooner than expected at 1.9°C and beyond10
Major polar ice sheets collapse into the seas bordering west Antarctica and Greenland
Global seas rise 30 – 50 feet
An era of superstorms begins
Polar methane release and other extraordinary (nonlinear) impacts
8 – 20 GtCH4 begin releasing from clathrates underlying former ice sheets (collapsed: see II.B.1.)
Table 8 (paper #1) Extraordinary Nonlinear Impacts arise10 . . . triggering ΔTGLOBAL = 4°C and rising
Positive feedback triggers larger ice collapses, exposing/releasing ever larger amounts of CH4
Ice sheet collapse and underlying polar CH4 release spirals beyond multi-tiered SRM control10
Positive (Table 8) feedback drives extra temperature rise to the range ΔTGLOBAL = 7°C to 14°C
Global “Methane apocalypse” develops from a dual polar 60 – 150 GtCH4 release
Emergency Whole-earth Cooling (WEC) Response Goals (from paper #110)
Whole-earth Cooling (WEC) could be based on multi-tiered solar radiation management (SRM)10
Multi-tiering SRM (Whole-Earth Cooling (WEC, paper #1) could cap global warming at 1.3°C by 2028)
WEC restores ΔTGLOBAL = 0°C by 2040 . . . buying time and creating a foundation for SPSC success
SPSC Scaling Requirements: ΔTPOLAR = -1°C to -2°C by 2040, summers only ―several decades
SPSC Urgency (recruitment, proofs, approvals, scaleup, deployment, milestones)
Combined WEC and SPSC Concept General Premises and Goals
WEC + SPSC ΔTPOLAR = -2°C by 2040 for several decades could refreeze polar ice & stop CH4 leakage
WEC + SPSC ΔTPOLAR = -2°C by 2040 for several decades could forestall an impending “CH4 apocalypse”
WEC + SPSC ΔTPOLAR = -2°C by 2040 for several decades could prevent multi-meter sea rise
WEC + SPSC ΔTPOLAR = -2°C by 2040 for several decades to avert protracted global superstorms
WEC + SPSC ΔTPOLAR = -2°C by 2040 for several decades to avert protracted global megadrought
WEC + SPSC ΔTPOLAR = -2°C by 2040 for several decades to avert protracted global wildfires & flooding
WEC + SPSC ΔTPOLAR = -2°C by 2040 for several decades could prevent future global economic collapse
WEC + SPSC ΔTPOLAR = -2°C by 2040 for several decades could create millions of jobs
WEC + SPSC ΔTPOLAR = -2°C by 2040 could expand markets & revenue for energy & fertilizer industries
WEC + SPSC ΔTPOLAR = -2°C by 2040 for several decades could stimulate global economic expansion
Specific SPSC Premises
Multi-tiering enables SPSC success, conserves resources, dilutes UIC risks, & accelerates greenlighting
Early start with stepped phase-in, UIC monitoring & rapid i.d. ― culling losers & rescaling winners.
Tiers & Options
Dual regional space shields (1 for each pole – in addition to the ref. 10 global space shield)
Regional Stratospheric EHUX Coccolith Aerosol (SECA) injections (50 – 65°N & 50 – 65°S latitude)
(more concentrated injections adding to equatorial SECA injections10 to double down at poles)
Ground level polar vortex coccolith aerosol injections (automatically rising to stratosphere)?
Dimethylsulfide (DMS) canister polar release to increase summer cloud cover
Marine cloud brightening (MCB) in polar open waters (including Canadian Archipelago)
(to brighten DMS seeded clouds – potentially preventing them from raining (which melts ice))
Offshore polar DMS/MCB cloud seeding/brightening that can drift inland for SPSC
Crop-duster type planes distributing coccolith aerosol, chalk dust, and/or silica beads over ice
Regional, seasonal methane removal
HO· (hydroxyl radical) CH4 oxidation – high altitude troposphere H2O2 misting, polar summer
Source trapping of concentrated polar methane – at local leak points (capture before it escapes)
East Siberian coastal shelf fountains (trap & flare (or harvest as fuel))
Arctic lake bottom CH4 fountains (search, trap, & flare)
Tundra search, trap, & flare
Coastal glacial cliff edge trap, & flare (where possible)
Artificial upwelling of deep seawater (only to lower polar ocean surface temperature)
Monitor polar CH4 concentrations annually during summer months . . . ≤ 1 ppm?
Monitor September sea-ice extent annually . . . extent increasing?
Aerially (or satellite) monitor lake ice-hole sizes annually (late Feb., early Mar.) . . . smaller?
Semiletov/Shakhova re-measuring Siberian seafloor fountains annually . . . getting smaller?
Aerially (or satellite) monitor same yellow tundra CH4 leak sites . . . turning “green” in color?
Monitor glacial movements and ice-burg calving rates annually . . . calving rates reducing?
Measurements of ΔT polar annually . . . supercooling to ΔT = -1 to -2°C each summer?
ΔT polar impact (ΔT polar SPSC graph superimposed on previous ΔTGLOBAL = 0°C (SRM Fig. 9 graph10)
Follow decadal progress & trends in items A (1-6) monitoring
Summary and Conclusions
Benefits (section VI goals fulfilled)
Climate Restoration Technologies (CRT) maintains all rights reserved for all materials & statements reported above.”