People on various message boards for the SurEste de Mexico (a.k.a. the Yucatan Peninsula) have been predicting a direct laser-like hit by Ernesto on Merida and Progreso.
We at Yucalandia have a slightly different take on the official US NOAA and Natl. Hurricane Center data on Ernesto.
See full article at: Tropical Storm (Hurricane?) Ernesto’s Potential Paths
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Feel free to copy while giving proper attribution: YucaLandia/Surviving Yucatan.
Dr. Steven M. Fry
Read on, MacDuff!
I am suppose to fly Wednesday from Cancun, the predicted time and place of yesterday forecast. Delta would change the ticket only by charging $400, almost twice as much as a new ticket.. They wave the fees only very late on the storm tracking. I will wait.
Good Morning Meir,
The storm center predictions are tracking more southward this morning. Again, this morning, the 6 major computer models storm-center path results vary widely. There are 3 storm center tracks that indicate landfall in south central Belize, and now one that predicts a route through Merida. Again, the Monday morning data should give us a good indication of the eventual route. (Where the Monday morning predictions is where the paths deviate significantly from each other, defining a northern or southern storm center path).
I agree with your blog. The forecasts on wunderground.com, in addition to the assessments from Dr. Jeff Masters on the Wunderground blog, is a great source to predict the possible path of storms. I usually go to this site a couple times a day when a storm is headed our way. Many of us who live in Cozumel, take care of the food, gas, water and cash stocks four days out. If you are with 50 miles of the predicted path two days from impact, then you get serious about boarding up the house. The NHC forecasts are based on the six computer models, but usually don’t show the different predictions like wunderground does.
As Sunday progresses, Tropical Storm Ernesto is tracking on a more southern course, which is better for Cozumel and Q. Roo, but tough luck for Belize.