April 20, 2025
As some people report on pot-smoking today, and others cry: ” Wolf! … WOLF !!!” over the latest emanations out of the White House … Yucalandia editors & writers prefer reporting the lastest useful facts in the forms of … a “Look Back at Yucatan’s Hurricane History” … followed by a “Look Forward at Yucatan’s Upcoming 2025 Hurricane Season”
(“Above normal activity for 2025 – with 17 predicted named Atlantic storms … versus 14.4 average,)


Looking Back: What are the historical risks of HURRICANES hitting Yucatan’s North Coast?

~ 1 … Just 1 official reported landfall of a single hurricane in the past 173 years on our North Coast.
and
~ 2 … Just 2 reported landfalls of hurricanes touching the Yucatan’s North Coast in the past 500 years.


How do we know/ …. A diligent fellow confirmed these realities in his report of the historical records of all documented hurricanes to hit the US Coast, the Caribbean Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. His report also includes a convenient map of all officially-recorded hurricane landfalls for these areas.

Credit for the lovely map(s) goes to Michael Ferragamo.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/hurricane-dead-zone-map-shows-100258521.html


The article’s hurricane landfall map confirms what 17 yrs of Yucalandias’s reports & reliable-calm Facebook posts have repeatedly, consistently reported since 2006 … that only 2 hurricanes (Isadore & 1 other long past hurricane)  have made landfall on Yucatan’s north Gulf Coast in the last 500 years… 


What Does the Map Mean?
Despite years of occasional near-hysterical panic-posts on local FB expat groups, 173 years of history shows that a combination of geography, oceanography & meteorological factor make Yucatan’s north coast an official “DEAD ZONE” for hurricane landfalls … as we have had just 1 actual hurricane make landfall here in the past 173 years.

Note how empty our Yucatan North Coast is …. free from dots of documented hurricane landfalls.

Then notice the extremely high risks for hurricanes hitting Yucatan’s Caribbean Coast … similar to NORTH Florida’s reasonably quiet Atlantic coast, and the quiet of the Mid-Atlantic States coasts … versus Florida’s Gulf Coast and South & North Carolina’s Atlantic Coast extremely active hurricane landfall zones …

LOOKING FORWARD to the 2025 Major Storm Predictions for the Atlantic Hurricane Zone and Yucatan’s Potential for Big Storms in 2025:

For the last 50 years, the record-setting Atmospheric Sciences Department at CSU has put together the world’s most reliable forecasts for the Atlantic Ocean’s Major Storms hitting the US Coasts, Caribbean Coasts, and Mexico’s Coasts.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

This year’s 2025 forecasts are …
“ … the 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity. Current La Niña conditions are likely to transition to ENSO neutral conditions in the next couple of months; however, there remains considerable uncertainty as to what the phase of ENSO will be this summer and fall. “

” Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are generally warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral (or potential La Niña) conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.”

“We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. “

“ Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity. ”

So … As we approach the upcoming June – October 2025 Hurricane Season, remember to keep an eye on up-to-date weather tracking of actual storms and their actual positions (IOW.. Do not trust the loopy too-often-mistaken big predicted “storm path” cone paths … and instead, make practical proven preparations for possible-but-unlikely big storms with high winds & lots of rain,

yet, remain calm, as you remember that only 2 actual hurricanes have actually hit the Yucatan’s North Coast in the past 500 years.

Dr. Steven M. Fry


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Feel free to copy while giving proper attribution: YucaLandia/Surviving Yucatan.
© Steven M. Fry

Read on, MacDuff.