May 21, 2026

We’re moving closer to the JUNE 1, 2026 kickoff of Hurricane Season, so, it’s worth a look at the current forecasts.

Historical Top Performing Colorado State University’s Atmospheric Sciences Dept Summary:

“2026 Forecast Summary”
“We anticipate that the 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have somewhat below-normal activity. Current weak La Niña conditions are likely to transition to El Niño in the next few months, with the potential for a moderate/strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season.

Sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal but slightly cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear.

We are forecasting a BELOW-AVERAGE probability for MAJOR hurricane LANDFALLS along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.“

https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

NOAA / NASA / NWS now concur with the CSU experts:
“The agency is forecasting a total of 8-14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 3-6 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher).”

“Forecasters with NOAA’s National Weather Service are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year.” May 21, 2026:

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-below-normal-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season

Cheers,
Dr. Fry


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