US Unemployment Continues to Methodically Drop by both U3 and U6 Measures

June 4, 2014
Conservatives,  Tea Partiers, and Talking Heads on some business channels still chatter over “high unemployment” and a “weak economy”,  but  U6 and U3 unemployment measures of the actual numbers show a  different picture   of~ definitive trends~ ?:

US Unemployment (U6) of people who want work:

Chart is generated for a range of 22 year only

http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp

 

US Unemployment (U3) of people without jobs, who have actively looked for work within the past four weeks:

Chart is generated for a range of 22 year only

http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate.jsp

These numbers and their timing are right in line with our predictions about slow steady US (and Mexican) economic growth, as the US works-off the back-log of distressed properties and foreclosed properties (a 4 year process)  from the 2008 Fiscal Crisis and all the resulting 2009-2012 layoffs.   As the number of foreclosed/distressed properties fall, our home prices rise, and new construction rises,   and people start to fuel economic growth by finally spending and building – again.

What should we think about the people who complained about a bad economy that was supposedly not creating jobs ?

Do they look to the roots and causes of the Crisis in easy-money policies and insufficient regulation of Wall Street “investment bankers” that came from Conservative’s de-regulation policies?

Are the last 4 years of steadily decreasing unemployment really a bad thing?

happy retireeAs predicted (back in 2010):   2014 – 2016 look good for both the USA and Mexico,   as 2 million a year of relatively affluent Boomers become eligible for retirement every year until 2030 …  ~visiting~  spending $$$ , (with some snowbirds renting or buying property to escape the cold),  … all combine to fuel the future economies of Mexico’s expat communities … with good things  predicted out to 2030 for Mexican expat areas:  Baby Boomers: Retirement? Sufficient Savings? Their Likely Effects on Mexico?

 

 *     *     *     *     *     *     *
Feel free to copy while giving proper attribution: YucaLandia/Surviving Yucatan.
© Steven M. Fry

Read on, MacDuff.

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

5 Responses to US Unemployment Continues to Methodically Drop by both U3 and U6 Measures

  1. an says:

    Thank you President Obama

    • yucalandia says:

      Hi an,
      I am NOT an Obama supporter. As a scientist, I simply read graphs and evaluate data with an open mind.

      An, what do you see in the graphs?
      Bad trends or good trends for the US economy?

      If you read the last 4 years of comments here on Yucalandia: Why is it that every single Right Winger, Tea Partier, or “Conservative” who writes-in make only false or inaccurate statements, or they just hurl personal insults?

      Are all of today’s “Conservatives” incapable of analyzing data, evaluation issues, and expressing thoughts that address the facts?

      I was a registered Republican, voted near-straight ticket Republican for years. I worked for one of the US’s most conservative Representatives (Marilyn Musgrave).

      I come from 4 generations of rock-ribbed Republicans. Unfortunately, the Right Wing Republicans abandoned the moderate, rational center to exclusively pursue narrow-minded ideologies versus choosing what has been good for America.

      My people: ~ Think moderate, reasonable, rational Republicans who voted what was best for the country – rather than parroting some Right Wing party line.

      ~ Think of men and women with integrity, like Everitt Dirksen, Howard Baker, John B. Anderson: Fiscal conservatives.

      These men had integrity that was so different from today’s rigidly ideological “Conservatives” – with their orange mustaches from drinking the Tea Partier Koolaid ~ mindlessly parroting the same messages ~ bought and paid for by a handful of Right Wing billionaire racist FORMER JOHN BIRCH SOCIETY leaders.

      Remember that the “Conservatives” of the 1960’s – Goldwater et al, were some of the strongest racists of the time versus Everitt Dirksen and other Republicans with enough integrity and independence to provide the critical votes for Civil Rights and equal rights for women.

      I am NOT an Obama supporter. As a scientist, I simply read graphs and evaluate data with an open mind.

      I believe that people like “an” are physically incapable of making up their own minds, even when seeing 4 years of consistent data. See the research results on well-educated but narrow-minded Americans at: Backfire Effect https://yucalandia.com/2014/05/22/backfire-effect/.

      Be Happy, and try thinking for yourself…
      steve

  2. Algis says:

    Right On !
    The constant bleeting (as in sheep) by the udder side only served to mask the truth as to what caused the ‘great spiral’ with two unfounded wars which by themselves alone…not to sadly mention those soldiers who died When drones could have done the job….. now are taxing our great Country….

  3. readingterminal says:

    Let’s take a time out regarding the Mexican economy (outside of foreign investment in automobile production for export)…

    The Bank of Mexico last week dropped the Interest rate target for overnight inter-bank funding operations from 3.5% (annually) to 3.0%. GoM and many public statements by economists employed by banks here in Mexico keep talking of recuperation on the way, but a weak first half of 2014 with better days coming (hopefully anyhow) in 2015. The usual prime factor trotted out is relatively weak import demand from the USA. Meanwhile, the proclaimed reforms, including the energy reforms (petroleum as well as the more obscure electrical energy reform), passed in 2013 have potential investors in sectors “reformed” waiting on the sidelines for the still unavailable secondary laws that are to reveal the actual meaning of such reforms.

    • yucalandia says:

      RT,
      Like the tail on a dog, the Mexican economy gets wagged by the USA’s economy’s ups and downs – but lags behind a little when the USA goes up.

      Since 2010, I’ve predicted that 2014 is the year that the US economy turns around – barring some big shock. Well, the climate change driven wobbling polar vortex throwing the USA into the deep freeze multiple times between Jan-Apr – lowered the US GDP for one quarter, and has delayed things a bit.

      Just wait, barring other unpredictable shocks – like the 24 tornado days out of the last 30 – the US economy should continue to turn, as the jobless rate has just fallen to below the pre-Financial Crisis levels and backlogs of foreclosed properties have fallen as predicted, so, consumers should start feelin better, and start revving up the economy – leading to business orders going up, leading Purchasing Managers to buy more inventory, leading to a strong late 2014 and even better 2015, which makes things look good for Mexico in late 2014, building into 2014 barring shocks.

      steve

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s