July 17, 2022 COVID Update for Yucatan, Mexico:
The latest COVID wave may have peaked in Yucatan. After 12 prior consecutive weeks of significantly increasing Omicron 2.12.1 COVID cases, last week’s PCR confirmed COVID cases across Yucatan finally stabilized at 4160 cases versus 4148 cases the prior week.
Yucatan’s 4160 PCR-confirmed COVID cases is still troubling for 2 reasons. We saw 11 COVID deaths last week, along with the likely over 50,000 actual cases of COVID, likely means 1 Yucatecan out of 45 had active COVID infections => We still need to keep masking-up with N95 or better quality masks, and we need to Socially Distance by 8 ft or more when out in public places with masks-off for eating and drinking.
Still, seeing our COVID cases level-off for even a week is a relief, because it points to us having a slight pause in the prior 12 weeks of large increases due to Omicron BA.2.12.1 – giving us ‘a breather’ until the NEXT COVID WAVE of Omicron BA.5 & BA.6 arrives from the USA & Gr. Britain. … So, we likely can expect another 6 weeks of wearing good masks & Socially Distancing – because the vaccines, boosters, and prior COVID infections give NO PROTECTION from catching the current Omicron BA.2.12.1 … BA.5 … & BA.6 variants.
July 11, 2022 COVID Update:
We are now in our 12’th consecutive week of increasing Omicron 2.12.1 COVID cases, with another 30% increase in Yucatan’s PCR-confirmed COVID cases last week. The latest 4148 new PCR-test confirmed COVID cases last week is very troubling, because only a small fraction of COVID infected people here get tested by the expensive PCR test (1 in 12 likely). Because of the severe undertesting rates, we likely currently have over 50,000 actual cases a week. This corresponds to 1 COVID infected Yucatecan out of 45 Yucatecans whose highly infectious invisible COVID aerosols from talking, linger infectious in indoor spaces for 4 to 6 hours after the sick person talks without an N95 mask.
Neither a prior COVID infection nor being vaccinated nor boosted gives any protection from getting the current COVID strain in Yucatan (Omicron BA.2.12.1). Next, because having vaccinations provide only some protection from serious COVID symptoms & hospitalization caused by the current BA.2.12.1 COVID strain in Yucatan … we really MUST return to wearing tight fitting medical grade N95 or better masks and using 8 feet of social distancing inside buildings when eating with masks off, or use fans & 6 ft of distance to dilute out our inhaled COVID aerosol loads from infected people talking with masks off. … and NO, cloth masks do NOT work and they provide basically NO protection.
And yes, Virginia … If this latest 12 week long peak looks troubling, realize that it is only going to get worse this coming 3 months, because the even nastier strains of Omicron BA.5 & BA.6 that are currently ravaging the USA, have NOT YET gotten here to Yucatan.
This is very important, because vaccines, nor boosters, or having even a prior Omicron infection (like having COVID last January) GIVE NO PROTECTION from transmitting the future COMING waves of Omicron BA.5 and Omicron BA.6. Despite media reports & reassuring words from the White House, prior vaccinations & boosters are NOT EFFECTIVELY PROTECTING PEOPLE from BA.5 hospitalizations in many parts of the USA (as reported on NPR this morning).
Omicron BA.5 is now the dominant strain in the USA as 50% of new USA infections are causing US HOSPITALIZATIONS to spike wickedly by up to 30% in parts of America this past week, even for patients who were vaccinated & boosted or who had prior COVID infections (even last January’s Omicron infections). … Sadly, naive Medical Doctors (non-scientists) & TV talking head ‘experts’ (non-scientists) are now mistakenly claiming that because COVID deaths have not been spiking *yet*, that the current COVID BA.5 must magically not be risky … yet talented scientists instead point out that the spikes of past COVID deaths have LAGGED the prior spikes of COVID infections by typically 7 weeks. This means we really will not know the real COVID BA.5 death rates for at least 6 more weeks, which is why we again, still cannot rely on Medical Doctors nor TV Talking Head ‘experts’ for accurate timely useful advice.
and no, Virginia … There is no current evidence that BA.5 or BA.6 are here in Yucatan yet:
This means that there are likely new worse COVID waves on the way, that are ONLY stopped by GOOD tight fitting MEDICAL MASKS of N95 quality or Social Distancing when out in public. … This means NO MORE CRAPPY CLOTH MASKS that leak dangerous amounts of invisible aerosols from people talking … Further, when you have your N95 mask off to eat or drink in public, KEEP YOUR DISTANCE (8 ft) … or take advantage of breezes or fans paired with at least 6 ft of Social Distancing, to keep yourself from inhaling risky amounts the highly infectious INVISIBLE AEROSOLS from people talking or singing.
The vaccines & boosters are NOT working well enough to keep us out of the hospital from the coming BA.5 and BA.6 variants. Forewarned is fore-armed: BA.5 & BA.6 are not here yet, so we likely will see the current COVID wave’s surge last until September or October – being stopped only by good masks & Social Distancing … as new future cases of BA.5 & BA.6 will likely add to our current BA.2.12.1 cases.
Added Reasons Why the Latest COVID Infections in Yucatan Are So NEW and Scary:
Check out Yucatan Bill’s new plot of COVID waves top see how nasty Omicron is & how different it is from previous COVID waves:
Notice how the earlier waves of COVID are barely noticeable in this plot, because their R0 values were relatively small – especially compared to Measles R0’s of 16 to 18.
e.g. The original COVID strain had an R0 of about 4 … Alpha had an R0 of just 1.1 … Delta had an R0 of 1.5 … Omicron variants are now up at R0’s of 16 – 18 (these are the highest levels for viral transmission rates, equal to measles) … where a COVID infected patient early in the wave infects 16 to 18 people.
Notice that VACCINES DO NOT WORK to stop Omicron transmission … Only tight-fitting N95 grade masks (or better) work, or Social Distancing of 8 ft. out in public indoor spaces … or fans briskly blowing fresh air between people to dilute out people’s invisible, HIGHLY INFECTIOUS aersols from TALKING or SINGING work to protect us … and long-COVID consequences are now harming over 21 million Americans.
These scientific facts about N95 or better masks & 8 ft of Social Distancing are the ONLY guaranteed solutions to stopping COVID’s spread, and they were proven, known & reported effective by good scientists at the beginning of the COVID pandemic, published in March 2020, the first month of the COVID pandemic.
Realize, that talking head ‘experts’ on TV and Medical Doctors are not trained scientists, and realize that Medical Doctors like Dr. Faucci & Dr. Wallensky are not scientists, and have ignored the critical COVID scientific facts for years.
See Details Here on Staying Safe from COVID (Mar. 2020):
So … Having even a prior Omicron infection (like in January) GIVES NO PROTECTION from transmitting Yucatan’s current Omicron BA.2.12.1 … and having vaccines & boosters are not protecting Americans from COVID BA.5 hospitalizations. … So, it’s time to MASK-UP again … and time to go back to 8 ft of Social Distancing when eating or drinking without masks in public.
~ Stay well, Stay informed, Stay safe. ~
Dr. Steven Michael Fry
Ph.D. Chemistry, Public Health & Environment, & Laboratory Measurement Science
Read on, MacDuff …