Feb 6, 2022 Update:
6,398 COVID Cases reported this past week in Yucatan, so we are still experiencing the 2’nd worst week of COVID ever. Fortunately, this was the first decrease in weekly cases for the past 6 previous weeks of increases (with a 15% drop), which gives a little hope that we may be past the peak(?).
Hospitalizations also dropped slightly from 178 ICU patients last week, decreasing 12% to 156 Yucatecans hospitalized in public hospital ICUs.
Death rates are also a bit lower, as the COVID infections are shifting to more Omicron & less Delta variants, with 77 COVID deaths this week. Omicron is killing people here, yet it appears to be killing 23% fewer people than the Delta version, where we would normally expect 100 deaths last week, if the infections were all Delta. This is very likely NOT a “testing-effect”, because we are still seeing COVID-positive results rates at 79% last week, as compared to 83% positive tests the previous Jan 30 ending week.
Predictably & hospitalizations, the deaths were excessively coming from UNVACCINATED people.
Previous COVID infections supposedly giving protections from Omicron exposed as a myth –
anti-vaxxers hoax:
Finally, it has become clear that having a prior COVID infection IS NOT GIVING PROTECTION from Omicron infections, as people who recently had Delta infections ARE GETTING OMICRON infections, with NASTY lung thrombosis, hospitalized due to coughing up blood … along with other Omicron patients getting nasty brain, liver, & kidney thrombosis => which are PRIMARY CAUSES of COVID deaths.
So … The whole set of some people’s claims that somehow “COVID magically might not kill people”, continues to be exposed as a big anti-vaxxer’s, anti-COVID hoax … along with unvaccinated people being the vast majorities of serious injury, hospitalizations and deaths.
Because vaccinations & boosting give good protection from Omicron hospitalization & death, Omicron is still infecting vaccinated people … so keep wearing tight-fitting medical grade masks & Socially Distancing by 8 ft (when masks are off for eating & drinking indoors),
Stay informed … Stay healthy … Stay safe …
Dr. Steven M. Fry
Ph.D. in Chemistry, Public Health, & Laboratory Measurement Science.
Jan 30, 2022
The latest facts say it’s time to continue to be vigilant across Yucatan. We had a troubling 38% increase in COVID cases this past week (Sunday 1/23 – Sat 1/29), as COVID hospitalizations are also peaking to record levels this past Wednesday.
Because most people who get COVID do not get tested & their cases are not reported to the Government, there were likely just over 90,000 COVID cases across Yucatan this past week. This means that 1 in every 25 Yucatecans you meet in a week have an active COVID infection => a very troubling number.
Conclusions? … We must continue to be diligent in wearing tight-fitting masks**, continue Socially Distancing of 8 ft indoors with masks-off (to eat & drink), and maintain 6 ft of distancing when there are breezes or a fan … diluting out the highly-infectious invisible fine aerosols from people talking.
**We must also THROW AWAY all cloth masks right now, because they leak a disastrous 40% – 70%, which puts both the wearer and other people at risk.
Progress of the latest COVID wave of cases:
According to official Yucatan reports of weekly COVID cases going back to Dec 15’th, beginning with a low low 84 cases, then 481 , then 1,463, then 2,952, … 5,425, and now 7,526 cases this past week.
COVID hospitalizations are overwhelming our hospitals, with record-breaking hospitalizations this past week, peaking at 202 ICU hospitalizations in our public hospitals on Wednesday … And sadly, COVID deaths for Yucatan now total 6603, with 57 newly reported deaths for this past week.
Delta variant is still our dominant strain:
Over the past weeks, the Omicron variant has produced 18% just of the official COVID-19 variants, with Delta still being the dominant strain.
The increase in the COVID wave is slowing:
The weekly percentage increases in this recent big continuing wave of COVID cases have been: 345%, 204%, 101%, 84%, and now 38% => so the rate of increase is not as wicked, but a 38% INCREASE is still troubling
Location of COVID cases:
Merida has the largest total cumulative number of weekly cases in Yucatan with 60,422 total official COVID cases. Within Merida, the largest number of cases have been in Zona Norte at 14,798. On a colonia basis, Colonia Centro has the most with 5,558 cases.
The Yucatan Beach (Gulf Coast of Yucatan from Chuburna to Telchac Puerto) had 208 new COVID-19 cases this week, down from 302 last week. This was the third highest number of cases for any week of the pandemic.
So … BE VIGILANT … COVID cases are still rising substantially here (38% more this week) …
Keep wearing only tight-fitting medical grade masks (KF94 or KN95, or N95) … Keep Socially distancing by 8 ft with masks off indoors …. and THROW AWAY your cloth masks, because they leak a disastrous 40%-70%.
Stay informed … Stay healthy … Stay safe …
Dr. Steven M. Fry
Ph.D. in Chemistry, Public Health, & Laboratory Measurement Science.
Read On … MacDuff !
Surviving Yucatan 
I picked up a case of Omicron last week, in Chiapas of all places. I was 100% convinced it was a common cold. A chance conversation convinced me to get tested.
news flash: Omicron is The Common Cold
“news flash: Omicron is The Common Cold”
In case people take this idea out of context … notice this is a really bad idea. Hospitals across the USA are swamped with Omicron COVID patients.
Notice that UNVACCINATED people are dying of Omicron COVID at 76X times higher rates than vaccinated-boosted people – with over 4000 Omicron deaths a day in the USA…
Pingback: FYI | Chicxulub Food Bank Yucatan Mexico |
I’m curious what method is being used to determine the variant in positive tests. (“Over the past weeks, the Omicron variant has produced 18% just of the official COVID-19 variants, with Delta still being the dominant strain.”) Those numbers aren’t being reported here in the state of Guanajuato.
Update: January 31 data for Mexico as a whole: Omicron now represents 95% of cases. https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/
Between symptomatic and asymptomatic, according to estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. An infected person can be asymptomatic, but in Mexico, only those who have symptoms are tested. “We expect that more than 55% of the Mexican population will be infected with Omicron in the next 3-4 weeks [by mid-February]. Our models for Mexico suggest that infections will peak at around 3 million per day by January 19, although the peaks in some states will vary considerably, with peaks after mid-February in Chiapas and Morelos,” said Rafael Lozano, a specialist at that institute.
EDITOR’s NOTE: The supposed newspaper editorial above, claims values that are off by 75X times too high versus actual reported values … and none of the values claimed above are actual values, all just guess-timates.
Dr. Steven
M. Fry
Notice that all the claims are “proposals” and estimates from computer “models”.
None of values listed in this comment are actual measurements.
Ironically(?) … Reality:
There were an average of just 40,151 COVID cases reported for all of Mexico on January 19’th …
versus the Guadalajara Post’s GUESSES of … “3 MILLION per day” … by January 19’th.
When supposed news reports are off by a factor of 75X times TOO HIGH … how much should attention should we give to them?
Dr. Steven M. Fry
Ph.D. Chemistry, Public Health & Laboratory Measurement Science
Yes, these are opinions, but probably well-founded ones. The quotes from the specialists at U. Washington use appropriately cautious language, “We expect…” and “Our models suggest…”
I was tested, simply having told them I had symptoms. Anybody could do that.
How are you doing now?
Mild symptoms ? … Any sequelae ?
The symptoms were so mild I was sure I had a cold, with a side of a throat infection. I was then informed that ‘worst sore throat of my life’ was an Omicron symptom, so I got tested, four days into symptoms. The following two days I mostly slept and was unable to leave the hammock. The next day I was up, but it was another week until I wasn’t always terribly tired. No fever, very mild headache, no body aches, no sinus drainage, very mild cough. Today is two weeks from the subsidence of symptoms and I feel pretty normal.
Congratulations on the good recovery!