Jan 2, 2022
I’m writing this morning’s report with a bit of sadness, because COVID cases are spiking up again in Merida & Yucatan, as a result of all the snow-birds returning and the recent Christmas season … +plus a sprinking (13) of Omicron cases.
The COVID case data is in for the most recent Friday (Dec 25’th) – Saturday (Jan 2) period … and the trends look bad. … Overall … Delta COVID cases increased a shocking 345% increase this past week … hitting 481 cases for the week for the State of Yucatan, with the vast majority of cases happening in Merida.
For comparison … Just two weeks ago we had the lowest-ever 83 cases for the entire week.
In contrast, yesterday (Saturday) alone we had same number of 176 cases as the previous 2 weeks total combined. Overall, Yucatan’s case numbers are STILL RELATIVELY LOW … for now .., which means you would have to encounter 4800 Yucatecans in a week, to find one with an active COVID infection.
Still, this past weeks’ increases of 78% more hospital COVID treatments and over 4X more positive case rates (35% of Yucatecans tested had COVID) – makes it time to re-evaluate going out & about without masks to eat in public.** For everyone’s benefit, the big increases in the 3 big data points (345% more cases, 4X more positives, & 78% more COVID hospital treatments) are very strong proofs that there is a huge surge of COVID cases looming for January & February. The COVID case numbers are still CURRENTLY VERY LOW – at safe levels.
Specifically, because 97% of COVID cases are infectious for 7 days, the weekly case reports are significant:
There were 481 new cases for this past week … yet each day brought significantly larger numbers than the previous day, giving us the largest weekly % increase for for the entire pandemic. Only two weeks ago we had only 83 cases for the entire week, yet, yesterday, Saturday alone had 176 new cases.
~ This current previous week’s case TOTAL numbers were still relatively VERY LOW – 481 cases per week – where 400 cases a week have been our typical low-levels here in Yucatan.
~ The current rate of 1 Yucatecan COVID case per 4,800 Yucatecans is still stunningly low compared to the USA & Canada . .
~ In addition to the near 400% increase in new COVID-19 cases this past week, COVID hospital treatments of patients spiked by 78% in public hospitals.
~ COVID hospitalizations (overnight stays) in public hospitals increased 48% from 23 cases on Saturday Jan 25’th…. to 34 cases on Saturday (Jan 1).
~ COVID-19 testing showed quite low 8.1% rates of positive tests just two weeks ago. Yet, this week’s percentage of positive cases spiked over 4X to 35%.
Again … These last 5 big data points are very strong indicators that there is a huge surge looming for January – even without Omicron –
Stay informed … Stay healthy … Stay safe …
Best Wishes for Better New Year,
Dr. Steven M. Fry
Ph.D. in Chemistry, Public Health and Laboratory Measurement Science
Readers interested in scientific Omicron COVID specifics are encouraged to see:
Read On … MacDuff !